#美国贸易赤字状况 【Risk Pricing: The Hidden Bond Between US Political Cycles and Crypto Markets】

According to the latest data, the probability of Trump facing impeachment again during his 2025-2029 term has surged to 57%, hitting an all-time high. Behind this number lies far more than political gossip.

The real signal is here — the Trump team has already released signals in advance: if the opposition party wins significantly in the 2026 midterm elections, a new round of impeachment actions is virtually certain. From another angle, what does this 57% probability increase itself indicate? Political risk has already been digested and priced into the market.

This is neither emotional volatility nor baseless speculation. America's institutional framework and electoral cycle determine the inevitability of this logic — political cycles are essentially quantifiable and derivable. So when you see $BTC $SOL $ETH these types of assets moving within political risk cycles, the driving force behind it was already there.

The crypto market's response speed to macroeconomic political risks is often more sensitive than traditional finance. This time is no exception.