Trump signed a bill to end the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, why is the crypto market still in a fall?

On November 12, 2025, U.S. President Trump officially signed a short-term funding bill, ending the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, which lasted for 43 days. Kevin Hassett, the Director of the National Economic Council, estimated that the shutdown resulted in approximately 60,000 private sector employees losing their jobs. The political breakthrough of reopening the government simultaneously creates a favorable window for crypto assets legislation, as Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman John Boozman and Senator Cory Booker have jointly announced a discussion draft on the structure of the crypto market, with the regulatory framework for digital assets expected to accelerate following the end of the shutdown.

The Economic Cost and Political Game of Government Shutdowns

The 43-day government shutdown has caused significant damage to the U.S. economy, with the National Economic Council estimating that 60,000 private sector job losses are only the directly visible impacts. Deeper shocks are reflected in the widespread paralysis of government functions—federal agency employees were forced to work without pay, the release of economic data was completely interrupted, and regulatory approval processes were stalled. Trump emphasized when signing the bill: “Today we conveyed a clear message, we will never yield to extortion.”

The resolution of the stalemate is based on compromise between the two parties. A handful of Democrats helped advance a funding bill that would last until January in exchange for Republicans agreeing to vote on extending healthcare tax credits in mid-December. However, not all Democrats support this compromise; Senator Elizabeth Warren criticized the bill as “wrong” and stated, “I will not support an agreement that does nothing to lower healthcare costs. We are in a healthcare emergency, and simply extending these tax credits for a year costs less than the $40 billion rescue Trump provided to Argentina.”

The legislative process for encryption has accelerated due to misfortune turning into blessing.

The unexpected side effect of the government shutdown is that it has gained new momentum for cryptocurrency legislation. During the shutdown, the negative impact of regulatory uncertainty on the market highlighted the urgency for a clear framework. Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman Boozman pointed out when releasing the discussion draft on market structure: “As Congress expands the committee's authority to oversee the trading of digital assets, it is crucial to ensure that it has the tools, personnel, and resources necessary to execute this new mission while also fulfilling its existing responsibilities.”

This draft marks the first attempt by Congress to comprehensively define the jurisdictional boundaries of the CFTC and SEC in the crypto field, laying the foundation for addressing the long-standing regulatory arbitrage issues that have plagued the industry. The discussion of the draft includes: clarifying the definition and regulatory requirements of commodity-type tokens, establishing a token issuance exemption mechanism, standardizing the operational standards of crypto exchanges, and providing a compliance pathway for decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols. If these provisions become law, they will provide unprecedented regulatory certainty for the U.S. crypto industry.

Key Time Points of the U.S. Government Shutdown and Crypto Legislation

• Suspension Duration: 43 days (longest in history)
• Bill signing time: November 12th evening
• Unemployment in the private sector: 60,000 people (estimated)
• Funding period: Ongoing until January
• Crypto draft announced: November 10
• Tax credit voting: mid-December

The Actual Impact of Government Shutdown on the Crypto Market

During the government shutdown, the crypto market underwent a unique stress test. On one hand, the traditional financial market experienced decreased volatility due to a lack of economic data, causing some funds to shift towards 24/7 trading crypto assets in search of opportunities; on the other hand, the stagnation of regulatory approvals led to a backlog of multiple spot ETF applications, suppressing institutional participation willingness. This contradictory situation was particularly evident in the last week of the shutdown—Bitcoin's price oscillated around the key position of 100,000 dollars, lacking both catalysts for upward breakthroughs and large-scale sell-offs.

The limited operations of key regulatory agencies such as the SEC and CFTC have a profound impact on the market. IPO approvals have essentially been suspended, forcing companies like Grayscale to delay their listing plans; the pace of enforcement actions has slowed, providing some projects with breathing room; the absence of policy guidance has allowed the industry to explore autonomously in a gray area. This unique state of “regulatory vacuum” unexpectedly becomes a natural experiment to observe the self-regulatory capabilities of the crypto market, and also provides valuable references for the design of future regulatory frameworks.

Policy Outlook and Market Opportunities After the Stalemate

After the government reopens, the crypto policy sector may welcome a period of intensive activity. In addition to the Boozman-Booker draft, House Financial Services Committee Chairman Patrick McHenry has indicated that he will prioritize advancing the legislative process for the 21st Century Financial Innovation and Technology Act and the Payment Stablecoin Act. These bills have passed the committee stage before the shutdown and have the technical conditions to complete legislation in the short term.

In terms of market impact, increased regulatory clarity may attract a new round of institutional capital inflow. After the resumption of the paused ETF approval process, the spot ETF applications for assets such as SOL and ADA may be expedited, aside from XRP. Meanwhile, the one-time release of economic data that accumulated during the halt may cause a spike in market volatility, creating unique opportunities for crypto derivatives trading. Historical experience shows that after the removal of policy uncertainty, the crypto market often experiences trending conditions, and whether this will be repeated is worth watching.

Testing Institutional Resilience in the Unfreezing of Political Deadlock

The end of the longest government shutdown in American history is not only a temporary easing of a political struggle but also an extreme test of institutional resilience. During the 43-day shutdown, the crypto market exposed its deep connections with the traditional financial system while also showcasing its potential for independent operation. As Washington's political machinery restarts, the legislative momentum and regulatory consensus that accumulated during the shutdown may unexpectedly become an accelerator for the development of the digital asset industry. This transformation of crisis into opportunity reminds us that in complex political and economic systems, the most challenging moments often breed the most profound changes—not only for traditional finance but also for the crypto assets that seek legitimacy.