Wintermute: The BTC trading trend is more bearish compared to the stock index, and the upward narrative premium is no longer present.

On November 14, Wintermute's latest report pointed out that the correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq index remains as high as 0.8, but Bitcoin's trading trend is more bearish than the stock index, with responses to market pessimism far greater than to optimism. This year, on trading days when the stock market fell, BTC's decline was generally larger than that of the stock index, while on days when the stock market rose, Bitcoin's increase was smaller. This pattern last appeared during the Bear Market in 2022. Wintermute indicated that there are two main potential factors leading to this phenomenon: for most of 2025, funds that typically flow into the cryptocurrency space (including new token issuance, infrastructure upgrades, and retail investor participation) have shifted to the stock market. Large-cap tech companies have become the focus for institutions and retail investors seeking high beta/high growth. When global risk sentiment changes, Bitcoin remains correlated, but when optimism returns, it fails to benefit proportionately. It is more like a “high beta tail” of macro risk rather than an independently existing narrative; the downward beta effect still exists, but the upward narrative premium is no longer there. The current liquidity situation in the cryptocurrency market is different from previous risk cycles. The issuance of stablecoins has stabilized, ETF inflows have slowed, and the market depth of trading platforms has not yet recovered to the levels seen in early 2024. This fragility amplifies the negative response during stock market pullbacks. The result is that Bitcoin's participation in declines remains higher than in rises, exacerbating this performance deviation.