Mystery Selling Pressure Disappears, How Far Can the Rebound Go?

Today, the cryptocurrency market experienced a rare broad rally, with BTC approaching $70,000 at one point, and ETH and SOL rising over 13%. The most notable development is the sudden disappearance of the phenomenon that had persisted for months—"selling off precisely at 10 a.m. every day." Is this really just a coincidence?

Market Maker Lawsuit: Removing the "Selling Pressure Crutch"

One explanation circulating in the market is that the insider trading lawsuit against market maker Jane Street forced the involved institutions to pause their algorithmic selling. If this hypothesis is correct, then the previous suppression of the market was not driven by genuine sell demand but by specific institutions' quantitative strategies. The lawsuit is like pulling out the crutch that supported daily pressure, allowing the market to move more freely.

However, it’s important to recognize that the temporary absence of sell pressure does not mean buy orders are flooding in. Based on trading volume, this rebound is more driven by short covering and sentiment, with no signs of large-scale institutional capital returning. Early-stage rebounds often resemble a small boat passing through ten thousand mountains, but to turn this into a trend, sustained incremental capital is needed.

How Long Can Sentiment Hold? Three Observation Windows

The sustainability of this rebound depends on three key variables:

1. The actual impact of macro earnings reports: If tonight’s earnings from NVIDIA and Circle surpass expectations, it could reinforce the "AI + crypto" narrative and inject new momentum into the rebound; if not, sentiment may quickly cool down.
2. Whether selling pressure will resurface: The Jane Street lawsuit is just a case; if other market makers still hold large amounts of sellable positions, selling could reemerge in a different form.
3. The psychological threshold of $70,000: BTC has been repeatedly resisted at this level, and now it’s once again within striking distance. The battle between bulls and bears will intensify. If volume can stabilize above this level, it opens upward space; if it fails and pulls back, it confirms a range-bound pattern.

How to Position?

At this stage, it’s not advisable to chase blindly. Early in a rebound, broad gains are common, but divergence can appear quickly. I prefer to focus on two types of opportunities: first, oversold mainstream coins to reduce holding costs during the rebound; second, projects with independent narratives, such as AI, RWA, DePIN, which are more likely to withstand short-term volatility.
$BTC ‌$ETH ‌
A true reversal requires time to create space. Before institutional capital returns, treat this rally as a rebalancing window rather than a celebration starting point.
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