#通货膨胀 The Fed's move is indeed interesting—cutting rates, but the dot plot shows only 1 rate hike next year, while the market is betting on 2. This divergence reflects a tug-of-war over inflation expectations.

Powell's statements are very key: inflation remains slightly high, with risks tilted to the upside. This means that even rate cuts are made with caution, and the upcoming pace will depend entirely on labor market data. Morgan Stanley openly stated—stronger growth combined with stubborn inflation will result in the Fed cutting rates less than the market prices, and the risk of U.S. debt being overestimated is not small.

From a follow-trade perspective, this is a critical period of signal transition. The previous strategy of earning interest through preemptive rate cuts needs to be re-evaluated, and traders sensitive to U.S. debt and the dollar will become more cautious. I am adjusting my position weights—hedge fund positions may need to be reduced, while traders focusing on fundamentals and able to quickly react to labor data are actually worth increasing.

Bitcoin once surged to 94,000 and then retreated, essentially market digesting this "dove with an eagle" mixed signal. Short-term volatility is high, but the trend requires new data confirmation. In this environment, stop-losses should be set more strictly, and there is little room to adjust risk appetite.