#我的2026第一条帖 JPMorgan Chase's latest report indicates that the cryptocurrency market's previous "de-risking" process has likely neared its end. Capital flows from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs are showing signs of stabilization, bringing positive guidance to market sentiment.
The analysis team led by James Director and Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou stated that despite capital outflows from BTC and ETH ETFs in December 2025 (while global equity ETFs recorded a historic monthly net inflow of $235 billion during the same period), market indicators have shown improvement since January 2026: Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF outflows have shown "signs of bottoming," and position data from perpetual contracts and CME Bitcoin futures also indicate that selling pressure is easing, suggesting that the phase of synchronized position reduction by retail and institutional investors during Q4 2025 may have ended.
Additionally, the report mentioned that MSCI decided not to exclude Bitcoin and cryptocurrency reserve companies from global stock indices during its February 2026 index review, a decision that provides "temporary relief" to the market and is favorable for companies like MicroStrategy. Notably, JPMorgan Chase denies that recent crypto pullbacks were caused by liquidity deterioration, believing the core trigger was the systematic de-risking operations prompted by MSCI's October 10 statement regarding MicroStrategy's index status, and current indicators suggest this process has largely completed.
Analysis: Bitcoin's key support sits near $89,200, with leveraged longs continuing to buy dips on pullbacks
Bitcoin has rebounded to around $90,500 after briefly dipping to approximately $89,300 and testing support near the 50-day moving average (around $89,200). This marks Bitcoin's third consecutive day of pullback, following its near approach to the $95,000 level on Monday.
Crypto trading firm Win pointed out that this round of decline was mainly driven by low trading volumes and some traders taking profits.
Jake Ostrovskis, Win's OTC trading director, stated that after risk appetite briefly recovered following the new year opening but failed to break through the key $95,000 resistance, the market has exhibited two-way volatility over the past two days, with ETF outflows also becoming one of the dominant factors.
Furthermore, Fed rate-cut expectations have continued to cool recently. According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of a rate cut at the January 28 meeting has dropped from 15.5% a week ago and 23.5% a month ago to the current 11.6%. From the derivatives market perspective, leverage levels are rising. Bitcoin perpetual contract funding rates remain at a positive 0.09%, indicating that longs are still paying a premium to maintain positions, with traders continuing to use leverage to buy dips during pullbacks. However, this concentrated long position structure also means that if prices fail to advance further, even moderate declines could trigger concentrated liquidations, bringing additional selling pressure.
#我的2026第一条帖 JPMorgan Chase's latest report indicates that the cryptocurrency market's previous "de-risking" process has likely neared its end. Capital flows from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs are showing signs of stabilization, bringing positive guidance to market sentiment.
The analysis team led by James Director and Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou stated that despite capital outflows from BTC and ETH ETFs in December 2025 (while global equity ETFs recorded a historic monthly net inflow of $235 billion during the same period), market indicators have shown improvement since January 2026: Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF outflows have shown "signs of bottoming," and position data from perpetual contracts and CME Bitcoin futures also indicate that selling pressure is easing, suggesting that the phase of synchronized position reduction by retail and institutional investors during Q4 2025 may have ended.
Additionally, the report mentioned that MSCI decided not to exclude Bitcoin and cryptocurrency reserve companies from global stock indices during its February 2026 index review, a decision that provides "temporary relief" to the market and is favorable for companies like MicroStrategy. Notably, JPMorgan Chase denies that recent crypto pullbacks were caused by liquidity deterioration, believing the core trigger was the systematic de-risking operations prompted by MSCI's October 10 statement regarding MicroStrategy's index status, and current indicators suggest this process has largely completed.
Analysis: Bitcoin's key support sits near $89,200, with leveraged longs continuing to buy dips on pullbacks
Bitcoin has rebounded to around $90,500 after briefly dipping to approximately $89,300 and testing support near the 50-day moving average (around $89,200). This marks Bitcoin's third consecutive day of pullback, following its near approach to the $95,000 level on Monday.
Crypto trading firm Win pointed out that this round of decline was mainly driven by low trading volumes and some traders taking profits.
Jake Ostrovskis, Win's OTC trading director, stated that after risk appetite briefly recovered following the new year opening but failed to break through the key $95,000 resistance, the market has exhibited two-way volatility over the past two days, with ETF outflows also becoming one of the dominant factors.
Furthermore, Fed rate-cut expectations have continued to cool recently. According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of a rate cut at the January 28 meeting has dropped from 15.5% a week ago and 23.5% a month ago to the current 11.6%. From the derivatives market perspective, leverage levels are rising. Bitcoin perpetual contract funding rates remain at a positive 0.09%, indicating that longs are still paying a premium to maintain positions, with traders continuing to use leverage to buy dips during pullbacks. However, this concentrated long position structure also means that if prices fail to advance further, even moderate declines could trigger concentrated liquidations, bringing additional selling pressure.