Sideways movement? That's just when it's time to test your mentality—whoever can hold out wins.
All the new capital has run off to trade stocks, and that's the most heartbreaking part.
Long-term institutional investors have locked up liquidity, and us retail traders can only sit here and wait it out.
NUPL is in a critical zone—bottom line is we still have to wait, don't mess around recklessly.
As for capital rotation, the roller coaster is gone, now we're sitting in the roller coaster tunnel.
Without fresh blood, relying on old money to support it, how much movement can this market really have?
Regulation and macro fundamentals—both need to stay out of trouble, but the odds are pretty slim.
Rather than chasing the waves, might as well let it digest slowly. Being impatient won't help anyway.
Limited downside risk in the short term? That depends on how you define "short term" though.
Using time to buy space sounds like chicken soup wisdom, but honestly, there's no other way around it.
Sideways period? Sounds boring, but it feels more torturous than a roller coaster thrill ride.
Fresh capital drying up - that really hits home... No wonder we haven't seen those skyrocketing rallies lately.
1.673 million bitcoins locked up, how boring is that... Us retail investors can only camp out here and wait.
Wait, trading time for space? Does that mean I need to hold until 2027 to see action? Can I keep my composure through that haha.
ETF net inflows turned around, is that a good signal or just the calm before another round of retail slaughter...
Bottom line is no one's stepping up to buy, institutions aren't crashing it, so we're just slowly getting cooked here.
Limited downside in the short term... that sounds even worse than a crash, consolidation squeeze is real torture.
Regulatory tailwinds and macro stability... when will these two conditions ever align, I'm getting a bit hopeless.
Breaking free from chasing volatility? Easy to say, but my eyes are already glued to the charts.
NUPL is still in accumulation phase, so should I enter now or wait a bit... this is driving me crazy.
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MysteriousZhang
· 01-09 08:49
Sideways movement? Then what am I chasing, might as well go trade stocks instead.
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6.73 million bitcoins locked up by institutions, now retail investors are really lying flat.
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Without new capital inflow, this is how it stays, how much longer do I have to wait, my patience is running out.
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Rather than waiting for consolidation to digest weak hands, better to look for other opportunities elsewhere.
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Early accumulation zones sound nice, but it never seems to be our turn to actually profit.
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Capital has gone to trade stocks and commodities, we in crypto have really become the bag holders.
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Trading time for space? Fine, I'll just treat this as Bitcoin "hibernating".
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Regulatory tailwinds and macro stability, have these two conditions ever appeared simultaneously? I haven't seen it.
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Institutions not selling and new capital drying up, they want us to wait indefinitely?
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Limited downside in the short term, so bounces are also limited, forget it then.
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CommunitySlacker
· 01-09 08:44
Sideways trading is sideways trading then, anyway I've already laid flat long ago, better to save some peace of mind than stare at the charts all day.
New capital drying up sounds nice, but basically it means the retail investors have been harvested, the whales have locked their positions, and retail traders can only wait passively.
I'll be at ease once the institutions stop selling those 670k coins, at least there's a floor line, just don't trigger another crash and washout.
NUPL is already pointing to accumulation phase yet people are still partying there, wake up everyone, this time is really different, gotta learn to wait.
Got a question though - spot ETF net inflows are reversing, is this institutions really bullish or a smart retail-harvesting signal? Can't quite figure it out.
Rather than speculating about 2026 recovery, better to watch out for the risks in these coming months, no matter how nicely the bulls talk they can't hold your mindset during crashes.
Real talk, price action without big money driving it is just torture, rather than staring at bullish/bearish signals all day, better to go do something productive and let Bitcoin oscillate on its own.
ビットコイン市場は静かに新たなリズムに変わりつつあります。2025年末の激しい変動の後、多くの人はこれを崩壊の前兆または新しい強気市場の始まりと賭けています。しかし、実際のところそれほど劇的ではない可能性もあります——市場は長く単調な横ばい期間を準備しているのです。
オンチェーンデータ分析機関の観察によると、その背後にある論理は非常に単純です：新規資金が枯渇しています。これが根本的な問題です。資本は暗号市場から逃げ出していませんが、株式やコモディティなどの伝統的な資産に向かっています。この資金の循環は、かつての周期モデルの勢いを弱めつつあります。
機関投資家の動きからもそれが明らかです。67.3万ビットコインを保有する長期機関投資家は、大規模な売却を行う可能性は低いでしょう。その結果、市場は以前の熊市のような深刻な調整やパニック的な崩壊を再現しにくくなっています。
オンチェーンデータはこの判断をさらに裏付けています。ビットコインの純未実現損益（NUPL）指標は、現在早期の蓄積段階の臨界域にあり、熱狂期からは遠いことを示しています。米国の現物ETFのパフォーマンスも、昨年10月以降の調整期を経て、利益確定の圧力が和らぎ、デリバティブのポジションもほぼ整理されつつあります。今や純流入が再び始まり、市場構造は徐々に健全になりつつあります。
しかし、アナリストの見解には意見の相違もあります。楽観派は、規制環境が好転し、マクロ経済が安定すれば、ビットコインの2026年の回復の勢いは持続すると考えています。一方、保守派は、今後数ヶ月のリスクは依然として存在し、短期的な下落は限定的かもしれないと警告しています。
問題は、新規資金の大規模な流入がなければ、長期保有者が流動性をロックしたままであるため、ビットコインはあのようなジェットコースターのような暴騰・暴落のシナリオから抜け出せない可能性が高いということです。今後の展開は、時間を使ってスペースを作り、振動を通じて浮き上がった資金を消化するようなものになるでしょう。投資家にとっての試練は現実的です——短期的な変動に追随する思考から抜け出し、もっと遠い目線を持つことが求められます。