There are some short-term opportunities, but the signal of this liquidity decline is really quite unsettling in the long term... Willy's analysis this time still has some real chops.
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It's the same old theory about capital time differences. If it were that accurate, we'd all be financially free by now, but we really need to keep an eye on that 9.8-10k resistance level.
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Wait, strong-willed end of the line? Isn't it a bit early to talk about this now? The decline only started in January.
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The final hot zone... it sounds like the market is about to wind down, but before confirming a bear market, I still can't stop bottom-fishing.
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I'm just wondering why that wave of liquidity recovery in 2021 could push to the second top, but this bounce needs a question mark, huh.
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So should I hodl or should I run now? Woo, why don't you give me a clear answer?
知名链上分析師Willy Woo最近發表了對比特幣行情的看法，觀點很有意思——短期看漲，長期卻打了個問號。
先說近期的利好信號。Woo根據內部投資者資金流動模型發現，比特幣在12月24日觸底後就開始穩步反彈。他強調一點很關鍵：從資金面的變化到價格反應，通常需要2-3週的時間差。現在就是這個窗口期，雖然短期技術指標顯示有點超買，但這並不能阻擋資金推動的走勢。
更重要的是，期貨市場的紙幣流動性正在恢復——這個信號可不小。Woo提到，這種情況上次出現還是在2021年年中，當時正好推動了那一輪週期的第二個頂部。所以接下來的焦點就放在9.8萬到10萬美元這個關鍵阻力位上。如果比特幣突破這道關口，就得盯緊歷史高位（ATH）附近會不會再有壓力。
但這位分析師對更長期的前景持保留態度。從宏觀層面看，自2025年1月以來，流動性相對於價格動能在持續衰退。Woo把現在的階段稱為「最後階段的熱點區域」——聽起來像是強弩之末。動能缺少足夠的流動性支撐，這是個潛在的風險信號。
他也留了口子：如果未來幾個月有大量現貨涌入，打破下行趨勢，那他的看法也可能會改變。目前還沒確認進入熊市，但一旦資金開始持續流出，那就是熊市來臨的滯後指標了。
總的來說，這是個「短期有戲，長期需謹慎」的判斷。