Gate on-chain observation ( on November 14: Bitcoin fell below $100,000; '7 Siblings' Ethereum holdings exceed $150 million.

On November 14th, the crypto assets market experienced a severe on-chain liquidation storm, with Bitcoin's price falling below the critical psychological level of $100,000, resulting in over 230,000 traders being liquidated within 24 hours, with a total liquidation amount reaching $1.024 billion. Amid this market turmoil, Ethereum whales demonstrated remarkable contrarian accumulation courage, as a whale that “previously shorted 66,000 ETH” again withdrew 16,937 ETH (worth $53.91 million) from CEX, while another OTC trading whale purchased 9,945 ETH from FalconX, Wintermute, and Coinbase, worth $31.89 million. The current core contradiction in the market lies in the fierce game between short-term leverage cleansing and long-term institutional position building belief.

1. BTC Market Dynamics and Analysis

On-chain data of Bitcoin reveals that the market is facing a severe test of leveraged liquidation. In terms of long and short positions, when the price of Bitcoin fell below the key support of $100,000, a whale (0xceef…ba42) using Compound to long WBTC encountered liquidation, with a liquidation amount reaching $6.67 million. Meanwhile, the top three positions on Hyperliquid's BTC leaderboard are all short positions, with a total scale of $261 million, and all recorded significant floating profits. Among them, the “largest short on Hyperliquid” whale (0x5D2) has a 20x leveraged BTC short position with a floating profit of $16.92 million, with a position size of approximately $120 million. This address has begun to gradually place orders to take profits at price levels of $88,900 and $91,400.

“Smart money” trends show a clear divergence. On one hand, Anchorage Digital received a total of 4,094 Bitcoins, worth $405 million, from Coinbase, Cumberland, Galaxy Digital, and Wintermute, indicating that institutional-level funds are strategically positioning themselves at the current price level. On the other hand, an address marked as James Wynn opened a long position on BTC with a 40x leverage at an average price of $98,000, with a position size of approximately $1.09 million, currently recording a 62% floating profit. However, at the same time, another address still holds a small-scale BTC short position, reflecting some traders' cautious judgment on the short-term direction.

In terms of macro and institutional flows, data shows that U.S. retail investors are the main driving force behind the current decline. The Coinbase premium index has shown deep negative values for several weeks, with Bitcoin trading at a lower price on Coinbase than on other global exchanges, indicating that selling pressure in the U.S. investment market far exceeds buying interest in Asia or Europe. This pattern aligns with the recurring trends in the market: Bitcoin rebounds during the daytime Asian trading sessions, but sharply reverses during the evening U.S. trading sessions.

2. ETH Market Trends and Analysis

The on-chain activities of Ethereum show a stark contrast between the steadfast accumulation of whales and the liquidation of high-leverage traders. Focusing on whale behavior, a whale that “once shorted 66,000 ETH” has demonstrated an unprecedented determination to accumulate, not only withdrawing 16,937 ETH (worth $53.91 million) from mainstream CEX again, but also borrowing 120 million USDT from Aave and depositing it into CEX, indicating that it may continue to increase its holdings. Even more noteworthy, the bottom-fishing whale “7 Siblings” invested 7 million USDS to purchase 2,211 ETH at an average price of $3,166, bringing its total accumulation since November 4 to 44,008 ETH, with a total value of $152.99 million.

Long-term holders are active, with an address suspected to be linked to Richard Heart receiving 4,978 ETH transferred from the mixing tool Tornado Cash. These ETH were sold at a price of $3,273, exchanging for 16.294 million DAI. On-chain data shows that Richard Heart recently transferred 154,000 ETH (approximately $611 million) to 22 new wallets. These ETH were all purchased in March 2024 at an average price of $3,779, with a total expenditure of 621 million DAI, currently in a state of unrealized loss.

In terms of ecological and network activities, despite the weak price performance, the infrastructure construction of the Ethereum network continues to advance. Circle announced the launch of the StableFX on-chain foreign exchange engine and multi-currency stablecoin cooperation program on its Arc blockchain, which supports compliant institutions to use stablecoins for multi-currency trading and atomic settlement 24/7. At the same time, Travis Hill, acting chairman of the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), stated that institutions are working on creating guidelines for “depositor tokenization insurance” to provide regulatory guidance for financial institutions planning to expand their digital asset business.

3. Other Altcoin Market Dynamics and Analysis

Popular Coins

The long and short showdown for ZEC has entered a white-hot stage. The “former largest long” Whale (0x96e) on Hyperliquid has increased the ZEC long leverage to 6 times, and will use the released margin and remaining funds to fully build a position in ZEC longs of 8,000 coins, with a position size reaching $7.71 million and an average price dropping to $534. Currently, there is a floating loss of $350,000 (28%). This address has successively closed nearly 7,000 ZEC long positions to stop loss during the market crash, recording a floating loss of $490,000. Subsequently, when ZEC slightly rebounded, it re-entered the market to chase higher, indicating that its trading strategy has fallen into emotional decision-making.

The largest short against ZEC continues to hold its short position, with unrealized losses narrowing from a high of $20 million to $9.5 million. The opening price was $336, and the current price of ZEC is $508, with a position value reaching $28 million. This address has been building a ZEC short position since October 11, continuously adding to the position to average down costs as the price rose, and has not closed any positions to date. Meanwhile, this whale also holds a 15x leveraged ETH short position worth $26 million, with an unrealized gain of $6.6 million and an opening price of $4,094.

DeFi and RWA sectors

“HYPE listing insider Whale” reduced its leveraged HYPE long position by 5 times to 48.41 million USD, with a current floating loss of 2.02 million USD, an average entry price of 39.189 USD, and a liquidation price of 26.578 USD. This forced reduction in position reflects the increasing liquidation risk faced by high-leverage longs in a declining market.

In terms of regulatory progress, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) will hold a meeting on November 19 to discuss whether to establish relevant standards regarding how companies should report crypto asset transfer items in financial statements. At the same time, BNY Mellon is launching a money market fund specifically tailored for stablecoin issuers, who need to comply with the recently signed U.S. stablecoin legislation.

Meme Coin and specific projects

A multi-signature wallet from WLFI's official account transferred 166.6 million WLFI (approximately 23.74 million USD) to 7 wallets, with each wallet receiving about 23.8 million WLFI. This decentralized transfer may indicate that the project team is preparing for fund deployment or marketing activities.

Despite the overall weak market performance, PEPE has gained new application scenarios in the GameFi sector. The GameFi project Pepenode uses PEPE as one of its core game rewards, allowing players to “purchase meme nodes, upgrade facilities, and earn meme coins.” This integration within the game ecosystem provides meme coins with additional application scenarios beyond pure trading.

4. Market Overview and Trend Analysis

Overall, the current market is at a critical turning point of leverage cleansing and value discovery. Bitcoin's fall below $100,000 triggered a chain liquidation, with over 230,000 people getting liquidated for $1.024 billion within 24 hours, including $888 million in long positions and $136 million in short positions. Although this severe de-leveraging process is painful, it has cleared obstacles for a healthy rebound in the market.

From the perspective of capital flow, American retail investors are the main driving force behind the current decline. The continuous negative value of the Coinbase premium index indicates significant selling pressure in the American market. Meanwhile, the selling behavior of long-term holders is also intensifying. CryptoQuant data shows that in the past 30 days, long-term holders of Bitcoin have sold 815,000 BTC, reaching a new high since January 2024.

In terms of trend analysis, focus on the following in the next 1-3 trading days:

• Bitcoin is supported around $94,000, which is the production cost support level for Bitcoin analyzed by JPMorgan. If it falls below this level, it may drop to $89,000.
• Ethereum must hold the $3100 level, which is the cost area where whales have been intensively accumulating recently, with resistance at $3400 above.
• The result of the ZEC long-short confrontation, with 500 USD becoming a psychological barrier for both sides, any breakthrough in either direction could trigger large-scale liquidations.
• The comments from Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate policy, particularly the statement from Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari who opposed last month's rate cut due to the resilience of the economy.
• After the end of the U.S. government shutdown, the release of economic data is in question, as the White House secretary revealed that some economic reports for October may not be published.

Investors should closely monitor the trend changes of stablecoin inflows into mainstream CEX, as well as the order behaviors of Whale addresses at key price levels. These on-chain signals will provide important references for short-term market direction.

V. Conclusion

On-chain data clearly depicts a tableau of market participants in extreme volatility: on one side are highly leveraged traders forced to exit in the liquidation storm, and on the other side, institutional capital calmly accumulates in greed amidst fear. When Bitcoin fell below the psychological threshold of 100,000, triggering a chain reaction that led to 230,000 people getting liquidated, the true whales quietly laid their plans, accumulating over 61 million USD in Ethereum in a single day. This extreme polarization confirms the eternal truth of the crypto assets market – short-term prices are a voting machine, while long-term value is a weighing machine. During the current market cleansing of high leverage and the transition period of institutional repositioning, investors need to maintain a calm mind to distinguish noise from signal, as the darkest moments of the market often nurture the biggest investment opportunities.