ADA price rebounds 10%, Can Cardano break out of a true recovery trend before 2026?

Cardano (ADA) has experienced a significant rebound after a sharp correction at the end of 2025. The price has risen from around $0.34 to $0.37, with a stage gain of approximately 10%. This level coincides with a critical support zone that triggered the previous major rally in 2024, prompting the market to reassess whether ADA has already bottomed out and laying the groundwork for a potential recovery in 2026.

From a technical perspective, since mid-December, ADA’s price has shown some resilience. Although the prices in November and December kept hitting new lows, the daily RSI formed higher lows, signaling a classic bullish divergence. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator experienced a golden cross after Christmas, aligning with the subsequent 10% rebound, indicating improving short-term momentum.

Currently, the key test for bulls is whether ADA can regain the $0.42 level, which closely aligns with the 50-day moving average. If ADA can effectively reclaim this level, the market expects a move toward the previous important support at $0.50 in 2025. The liquidation heatmap also shows significant upward liquidity pools in the $0.39 to $0.42 range, which could serve as target zones for further upward movement.

From on-chain and holdings structure perspectives, the status of long-term investors is also worth noting. Data shows that investors holding for about 3 months have seen their 90-day MVRV ratio decrease by approximately 25%, while investors holding over 1 year have unrealized losses of nearly 38%. This indicates that most chips are still in a loss position, with limited short-term selling pressure, reducing downside risk and providing a relatively friendly environment for ADA’s rebound.

However, it is important to note that the current recovery heavily depends on the support zone between $0.32 and $0.36. If this area is broken, the technical structure will be compromised, and ADA’s price could further decline toward the 2023 lows around $0.24.

Overall, Cardano (ADA)'s short-term rebound has a certain technical and emotional basis. However, to sustain a long-term recovery into 2026, trading volume and the effective突破 of key resistance levels are still necessary. For traders monitoring Cardano’s price movements and ADA’s medium- to long-term investment opportunities, the current phase is more like a critical observation period requiring patience and validation.