Oil prices rose slightly, and civilian casualties in Gaza complicated ceasefire negotiations

(1) Oil prices edged higher on Friday and are expected to close slightly higher on a weekly basis, further complicating ceasefire talks in Gaza as more than 100 Palestinian civilians were killed while waiting for aid. (2) Brent crude futures for April delivery rose 0.44% to $82.27 a barrel; U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures rose 0.3% to $78.53 a barrel. (3) WTI is expected to rise 4% this week, while Brent crude oil remains near last week’s settlement price. Brent crude oil prices have been hovering above the $80 mark for three consecutive weeks. (4) Gaza health authorities said Israeli forces on Thursday shot and killed Long Palestinians waiting for relief supplies, but the Israeli side attributed this to people surrounding aid trucks, saying the dead had been trampled or run over. (5) U.S. President Joe Biden said the U.S. is verifying reports that Israeli forces opened fire on people waiting for food aid in Gaza, a deadly incident that he believes will complicate ceasefire negotiations. (6) Even before Thursday’s events, Israel and Hamas had said there were deep differences in talks in Qatar to finalize the details of a 40-day truce in the war in Gaza. The Qatari mediator said that there was no breakthrough in the talks and that the most controversial issues remained unresolved. (7) In other news, official surveys on Friday showed manufacturing activity in large Asian countries contracted for a fifth straight month in February, adding to the pressure on the government to roll out further stimulus measures. (8) In addition, U.S. prices accelerated in January from the previous month, as the cost of services such as housing and finance surged, but the year-on-year increase hit a three-year low, making it possible for the Fed to cut interest rates by mid-year. (9) On the supply side, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) oil production increased in February as Libyan oil production resumed after a period of hiatus, offsetting the impact of voluntary production cuts reached by other members with the OPEC+ alliance, a survey showed on Thursday. The 40 economists and analysts surveyed predicted that the average price of Brent crude oil in 2024 is expected to be $81.13 per barrel