Pioneer Navigation is cautious about US inflation, base effect may make data weak.

On February 12th, Jinshi Data News, Vanguard’s leading senior US economist Josh Hirt, said he remains cautious about US inflation. Due to base effects, monthly inflation data in the first few months of this year may be lower - the strong data at the beginning of 2024 will make today’s data look weaker. At the same time, monthly inflation seems to be approaching the level targeted by the Federal Reserve. ‘This is a very positive development,’ he said. The pressure of housing prices and rents is also starting to ease on inflation. On the other hand, Hirt pointed out the adverse factors of new tariffs and strong wage growth. These factors may continue to push inflation higher in the coming months. Hirt expects the core inflation rate for January to be 0.27%, with the pressure from the rise in energy prices easing compared to last month, overall inflation data will remain flat compared to December.