The latest on-chain data shows an interesting phenomenon: the current price of Bitcoin is close to the "real value" range calculated by some models—around $98,000.

A more noteworthy metric is the distribution of holding costs. Data shows that nearly 40% of BTC holders are currently in a state of floating loss. What does this ratio mean? Looking back at historical cycles, when the proportion of loss positions exceeds the 35-40% range, it often corresponds to the formation of a phase bottom.

From the perspective of market sentiment, long-term holders are showing signs of wavering. This spread of panic is often accompanied by a price bottoming process in past cycles. Of course, no one can precisely predict the turning point, but the statistical patterns are there.

If you are considering a layout, here are a few strategies you can refer to:

• Build positions in batches to reduce the risk of single decisions and avoid one-time bets.
• Set a price range to gradually buy in, and increase the position if it falls below the key level.
• Control your position size ratio, and don't let short-term fluctuations affect your holding confidence.

The pattern of the crypto market has always been this: when most people cut their losses and leave the market, it is often the window period for value recovery. Of course, this is not a signal to buy; it is simply presenting the data and logic, and the decision-making power is in your own hands.