When Bitcoin ETF Met Gold's Playbook

Historians often say markets rhyme. Here’s a wild parallel:

Gold’s first ETF launch in 2004 unlocked a 346% rally. Fast forward to today—what if Bitcoin repeats the script?

The Math:

• Bitcoin ETF approval baseline: $30,000
• Apply gold’s 346% return formula
• Target price: $138,000

Sounds like hopium? Maybe. But the logic is there:

Why it could work:

• Gold ETF democratized access → institutions flooded in
• Bitcoin spot ETF does the same for crypto (it already happened in Jan 2024)
• Institutional capital has multi-year horizons, not day-trade cycles

The reality check:

• Gold took years to compound that 346%—not overnight
• Crypto moves faster AND harder (both ways)
• Regulatory environment for BTC is messier than gold’s was in 2004
• Bitcoin’s already done multiple bull cycles; gold hadn’t

Bottom line: $138K isn’t a prediction, it’s a ceiling scenario. But it shows what happens when a previously gatekept asset gets mainstream plumbing. ETF approval = permission slip for big money.