In the past few weeks, the U.S. government shutdown has turned into a range-bound battle. It has lasted for 36 days, setting a historical record.

The Ministry of Finance's account has been frozen, budget execution is impossible, and the liquidity situation has become tight. Last week, SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) suddenly surged, significantly raising the cost of short-term borrowing—money in the banking system has started to become insufficient. Once liquidity is blocked, the market reacts first. The recent large fluctuations in the US stock market are based on this logic.

The timing is even more troublesome. Election day is on November 4th, Congress recesses on the 7th, and the end of the month is the Thanksgiving travel peak. If air traffic controllers and security personnel continue to not receive their salaries, the airport system could directly collapse. By that time, public opinion pressure will far exceed the fiscal negotiations themselves, and the political deadlock won't be able to hold on.

Historically, government shutdowns have only ended when they spiraled out of control. The one in 2019 was triggered by airport delays and unpaid wages, which led to public backlash, forcing a compromise in the end. But this time the backdrop is more complicated: higher fiscal deficits, a closer debt ceiling, and weaker market liquidity.

The timeline and pressure points are almost all concentrated in early November. If the stalemate continues to drag on until Thanksgiving, the United States will face not only a political crisis but also potential chain reactions in financial markets and the real economy. For the cryptocurrency market, tightening liquidity often means increased volatility, so attention should be paid to changes in the funding situation in the coming weeks.