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September's CPI report raises eyebrows: a staggering 40% of items were estimated rather than measured—jumping from 36% just a month earlier.
Here's the issue: when actual price data goes missing, the Bureau of Labor Statistics patches holes with calculated guesses. Normally? That's around 10% of the basket. But we're way past normal now.
This spike in estimation percentage isn't just a statistical footnote. It's a credibility crack in the inflation data that central banks rely on for policy moves—and markets react to accordingly.