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#美联储政策预期 Observations of overnight index swaps show that the probability of the Fed cutting rates in December has dropped to about 50%. This data reflects a subtle change in market expectations regarding Fed policy. This shift may be due to the latest economic data or official statements, and it is worth following closely. I will continue to track relevant on-chain data, especially the flow of US dollar stablecoins and the fund allocation of large accounts, to assess the potential impact of this expected change on the crypto market. It is also advisable to pay attention to recent speeches by Fed officials for more clues on policy direction.