Recently, things are getting interesting over in the US—government shutdown, official data halted, but private sector reports have already revealed the truth: corporate hiring is contracting, layoffs are increasing, and consumer confidence is beginning to decline. In other words, the economy is cooling down, but inflation remains stubbornly high.

The Federal Reserve is in a very awkward position right now. Continue to raise interest rates? The job market might not withstand it. Not raising rates? Inflation can't be pushed down. But the market has already started to vote with its feet—more and more funds are betting on "rate cuts within the year" in the futures market.

Why are people so confident about rate cuts? The logic is simple: when economic data deteriorates to a certain point, the central bank must act, and cutting rates is the most direct stimulus tool. Once liquidity is unleashed, where will the funds go? Historical experience tells us that assets sensitive to liquidity, like Bitcoin and Ethereum, tend to react early.

Honestly, don’t be scared by the term "recession." The rebound after the COVID crash in 2020, and the recovery following the Silicon Valley Bank incident in 2023—weren't those crises followed by great opportunities? Currently, expectations for rate cuts are heating up, and funds may already be quietly positioning—especially in more resilient DeFi protocols and Layer 2 projects.

Here are some specific strategies:

First, keep an eye on data windows. Although the government shutdown has caused some data to be missing, unemployment rates, non-farm payrolls (once released), and Federal Reserve officials’ speeches are all key indicators.

Second, don’t go all-in at once. Volatility is still high now. Building positions in BTC and ETH gradually during pullbacks is more prudent, leaving some ammunition for unexpected black swan events.

Third, focus on sectors that benefit from "rate cut" narratives. For example, DeFi lending protocols and Layer 2 scaling solutions—once liquidity is released, these assets could outperform mainstream coins.

Fourth, stay patient. Policy transmission to the market takes time. Don’t worry too much about short-term fluctuations; holding low-cost positions is the key.

If the Fed’s rate cut is a heavy rain, are you prepared with a bucket to catch the water, or will you wait until the rain stops before going out? Opportunities always favor those who are prepared.