#数字货币市场回升 Last night while following the market, I saw Bitcoin higher trade volumes surpassing the position 89000, so I decided to enter a long order.

#ETH走势分析 In this round of market, are those coins that suddenly took off really just lucky?

To be honest, after watching the recent skyrocketing cases of AIA, MYX, and $COAI, I realized that things are not that simple. I spent some time comparing the coins that have surged significantly this year, and the results were quite interesting - they all hit a few of the same points before launching.

First, let's talk about the most counterintuitive point:

The contract will be launched before the spot.

Yes, you read that right. These types of coins usually start with contract trading, and the spot market follows days or even weeks later. Why? The project party doesn't have spot tokens in hand, so they can't dump the price even if they wanted to. Once the price fluctuations in the contract attract enough attention, the spot market slowly opens—by this time, the price has already been pushed up.

The second feature is more hidden: the on-chain pool is terrifyingly shallow.

The liquidity scale often ranges from hundreds of thousands to about a million dollars. Don’t underestimate this detail; a shallow pool means the cost of pulling the price is very low. For example, when $COAI was launched, the on-chain liquidity was only 800,000 U. Someone threw in 300,000 U and directly raised the price by 20%. Just think, if it were those mainstream coins with billions in pool depth, this amount of money wouldn't even make a splash.

Market capitalization is another key indicator - it must be below 50 million U.

The advantage of low market capitalization is that the potential for growth is vast. Once it catches the attention of investors, it’s not uncommon for it to multiply tenfold or twentyfold. In contrast, for projects with a market cap already above one billion, how much capital is needed to double? An astronomical figure. When a ship is large, it really isn't easy to turn around.

There is also a lot of data that many people overlook: contract open interest.

If the open interest is close to or even exceeds the circulating market value itself, it is worth being alert. This indicates that large funds are quietly positioning themselves. Before the $AIA skyrocketed, its contract open interest reached 90% of its market value - this ratio is obviously abnormal, and there must be institutions building positions behind it.

Finally, there must be a story to tell.

Whether it's the concept of AI, the blockchain gaming track, or Depin infrastructure, there must be a label that resonates with the market. No matter how impressive the technology is, it doesn't matter if retail investors can't understand it. The key is to make ordinary people willing to share and willing to discuss.

So how do you seize such opportunities?

My own approach is to test in batches. When I see a coin that meets the above characteristics, I first use 5% of my position to dip my toes in, and then consider adding to my position once it breaks key price levels. Never go all in at once; these types of coins are too volatile.

In addition, keep a close eye on on-chain data. Tools like Arkham and DeFiLlama need to be utilized; large transfers and pool depth changes must be monitored in real-time. Many signals are actually hidden on the chain, but most people are just too lazy to look.

You must be ruthless when it comes to stop-loss. If losses exceed 15%, leave immediately and don't hold onto fantasies. This kind of low market cap coin may double today and fall back to its original state tomorrow.

To be honest—

High returns are always bundled with high risks. These so-called dark horse coins may make you rich overnight, or they could drop to zero within a week. The market will not show mercy just because you have done extensive research.

The four words "risk is self-borne" are not just empty words.