#FedRateCutPrediction

#December8 #FedRateCutPrediction #美联储降息预测

📉 Final FOMC Meeting of the Year — Will the 25BP Cut Spark a Market Rebound?
With the Fed’s last rate decision of 2025 just around the corner (3:00 AM UTC+8 this Thursday), the market is pricing in an 84% probability of a 25BP rate cut.

But the bigger question is: What happens next?

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🔍 My Rate Cut Prediction

I’m leaning toward a single 25BP cut this week.
Here’s why:

Inflation has cooled faster than expected in Q4.

Labor market softness gives the Fed room to ease.

Real rates are still high — a small cut won’t harm credibility.

This cut is more about pre-emptive support than panic.
That generally fuels risk-on sentiment.

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📈 Will the Market Rebound?

If the cut is confirmed, I expect:

Crypto: Short-term volatility → then a rebound as liquidity expectations improve

Stocks: Immediate positive reaction, especially growth sectors

Dollar: Likely to weaken, giving risk assets more breathing room

But if the Fed signals no further cuts, the upside could be limited.

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💡 My Current Trading Strategy

✔️ BTC/ETH: Accumulating in dips, aiming for post-FOMC volatility spike
✔️ Alts: Reducing exposure before the announcement — volatility risk is high
✔️ Stablecoins: Keeping some dry powder to catch any sharp dips after the decision
✔️ Macro trades: Watching DXY closely; a break below key support could confirm the risk-on shift

This week is all about positioning smartly before the volatility.

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📣 Your turn!
Do you think the Fed will cut this week? And how are you positioning for the decision?