Japan Rate Hike × Bitcoin | Hourly Market Quick Judgment Chart

Key conclusion: The 4 hours before and after tomorrow's rate hike decision are the golden window for Bitcoin volatility. Historical data confirms: 1 hour after the rate hike announcement, volatility skyrockets by 300%!

1. Key Timeline (based on the Bank of Japan decision time as point T)

| Hourly Period | Market Prediction | Action Signal |
|--------------|---------------------|--------------|
| T-2 hours | Narrow range fluctuation (USD 83,000 - 85,000) | Clear long leverage positions, lightly set short positions for ambush |
| T-1 hour | Increased volatility, slight dip | Take profit on short positions by 50%, observe without chasing shorts |
| T (decision announcement) | Instant plunge/rise, amplitude over 5% | Do not act! Wait for 15-minute K-line confirmation of direction |
| T+1 hour | If rate hike by 25 basis points → drop to USD 80,000; if dovish → rebound to USD 88,000 | Break below 80,000 add to short positions, break above 88,000 lightly add long positions |
| T+2 hours | Trend becomes clear, continuation of rise or fall | Set trailing stop-loss for profit orders, cut losses decisively |

2. Core Logic

JPY rate hike → Carry trade funds sell Bitcoin → Liquidity tightens, the 1-hour post-decision is the life-and-death line for bulls and bears. Breaking below 80,000 targets 63,000; stabilizing above 88,000 targets 90,000!

3. Operating Rules

1. Clear all leveraged positions 2 hours before T, keep only spot holdings;
2. After the decision, wait for one 15-minute K-line to close before acting, avoid chasing rallies or panic selling;
3. After a breakout, only add to positions once, total position size not exceeding 20%.

@CryptoCircle, survival is the only chance