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💥The drama of US Treasuries can't go on much longer: $34 trillion of "hot potatoes".
🔥Recently chatted with a few overseas investors, and their expressions were quite interesting—not panic, but fatigue. It was like watching an endless soap opera.
The story is simple: the U.S. Treasury is spending money like water, and the debt has already exceeded $34 trillion. Does the Federal Reserve want to stop? The pressure from interest rates cannot be contained; as soon as they turn around, they start the printing press again, claiming "no massive monetary easing" while actually doing it covertly.
‼️Once in the Volcker era, tough measures were taken to control inflation. What about now? As soon as Powell hears the Treasury crying poor, he immediately hands out candy. The power to lower interest rates is in the hands of politics, and Trump is eager to find a successor with a clear goal—someone who can "handle the debt."
❗️Let's take a look at the diplomatic scene. Japan is aggressively buying US bonds, like paying a "protection fee"; on the other hand, a certain major country is continuously reducing its holdings, reaching a new low since the 2008 financial crisis. Why? It's clear when you calculate three accounts: inflation dilutes the value of cash, the political risk of frozen assets, combined with the opportunity cost that is present.
❗️The most heart-wrenching thing is that the global consensus on "risk-free assets" has completely fractured. An era of low growth paired with high volatility has arrived. The old wealth management logic? It might be time to retire it. No one can escape how this play will end. Have you thought it through?