This Monday, the precious metals market went completely "crazy". Spot gold broke through the $4380 mark, and silver surged above $68, with both major safe-haven assets hitting all-time highs.

What is driving this market trend? One is expectation - traders widely anticipate that the Federal Reserve will initiate at least two rate cuts in 2026. Rate cuts mean increased pressure on the depreciation of the dollar, which enhances the appeal of non-yielding assets (gold, silver). The other is reality - the geopolitical situation is becoming increasingly tense, with Venezuela's oil being further blockaded, Ukraine frequently taking action against Russian tankers, and the situation in the Middle East deteriorating, all of which are continuously reinforcing the demand for safe-haven assets.

Looking back at this whole year, precious metals have been writing a legend. Gold has risen by about two-thirds, while silver is even more exaggerated, directly doubling—this is the largest annual increase since 1979. Who are the main drivers? The wave of central bank gold purchases and the continuous net inflow into gold ETFs. Data shows that the average monthly holdings of gold ETFs have steadily increased, except for May, while silver has gained additional support due to overwhelming demand and tight supply in trading centers.

What is the outlook for the market? The latest report from Goldman Sachs analysts gives a benchmark target of gold reaching $4,900 per ounce, with significant upside potential. The key lies in the competition between global central banks and ETF investors for the limited supply of gold—whoever can secure more will capture the core logic of this market trend.