#预测市场平台与套利 Wow, the arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket are really amazing 🤯 An annualized return of 40% is not a dream. My friend has $60,000 running in there, relying on cross-platform price differences and hedging combinations to make a living.

The core logic is super simple: buy Harris to win + simultaneously buy all Republican ballots in the gap combination, hedge both sides, and as long as the total cost is below $1, it's pure profit. Now the 3.5% arbitrage spread annualized directly translates to 41% 😱

But to be honest, there are also pitfalls in this matter:
- Liquidity is extremely thin, a large order can crash the price.
- Understand the rules thoroughly, a black swan event (like a candidate getting into trouble) can cause an explosion.
- Automated trading bots have been battling it out here, and the technical threshold is getting higher.

What I fear the most now is that the price difference on Polymarket will be drained by robots, leaving us with no space to play. However, since the Poly CEO said they prioritize market share over making money from transaction fees, it shows they are still burning cash to subsidize liquidity. Doing it now might be the last window period 🚀

Those who haven't participated in the prediction market arbitrage should take advantage of the excitement around the election and get on board quickly, don't wait until the liquidity is completely consumed by institutions.