#美联储回购协议计划 How the Fed's sudden policy change impacts the crypto market

Recently, market expectations have undergone a sharp reversal. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January has collapsed in a short period, falling below the key support level of 20%. In contrast, the market now believes there is a 45% chance of maintaining high interest rates before March. This means that the liquidity easing window, which was originally highly anticipated, may be delayed.

In the short term, the US dollar remains in a strong cycle, which will continue to put pressure on risk assets. The sentiment of crypto market investors has cooled, and many have begun to hesitate. However, historical data is worth referencing: throughout 2023, the market's expectations for interest rate cuts have failed multiple times, yet Bitcoin still strongly rebounded from $25,000 to $44,000. The discrepancy between expectations and reality is often a turning point for the market.

From the signals of the on-chain and options markets, the situation is not as pessimistic. Institutional investors, after a significant adjustment, are quietly positioning themselves in the spot market. The bullish positions in the options market have not shown any significant loosening, and there is capital entering the market to support prices during each rapid decline. These details reflect the true attitude of professional investors.

For retail investors, strategies need to be adjusted but there is no need to panic: First, hold steady on long positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum, which are the most certain assets in a bull market cycle. Secondly, be sure to reserve enough ammunition, as each sharp drop during the volatility process could be a buying opportunity. The key is to avoid high-leverage traps — this type of volatile environment is the easiest to clear out the greedy. The upcoming Bitcoin halving event in April is also worth paying attention to, as historical patterns show that such supply-side changes are often accompanied by a repricing of market expectations.

The market's freezing point often serves as preparation before a deep squat. While most people are still observing, a few rational planners have already started accumulating chips.