2025-12-22 13:29:41

Derek Halpenny, the head of forex research at a leading Financial Institution, recently expressed an interesting point of view: the US dollar is likely to continue weakening in 2026, but do not expect a collapse-level fall.

What did he say? "We basically believe that the dollar has peaked and is currently at the beginning of a multi-year downward cycle." Sounds pretty clear. According to this Financial Institution's prediction, the dollar index will fall by about 5% next year, while the euro against the dollar is expected to rise to 1.24.

Why is this happening? The main reason is the difference in monetary policies. The Federal Reserve is expected to continue cutting interest rates next year, possibly by 3-4 times. And what about the European Central Bank? It's likely to maintain stability with interest rates unchanged. This combination of easing and tightening naturally benefits the euro and suppresses the dollar. For investors in the blockchain space, a weaker dollar usually means that the appeal of risk assets (including crypto assets) will correspondingly increase.

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ProposalManiac

· 1h ago

A 5% decline? This guy's definition of "toping out" is quite conservative, it sounds more like risk hedging rather than a true bearish outlook. The Federal Reserve cutting interest rates 3-4 times while the European Central Bank remains on hold makes the interest rate differential logic indeed valid, but with such a straightforward arbitrage mechanism, hasn't the market already priced it in? The question is whether any black swan events will break this assumption... In the crypto assets sector, a weakening dollar does not necessarily mean risk assets will rise; it depends on whether liquidity supply has kept up. Historically, in many cases, it has been stagflation environments where everything declines.

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BearMarketBuyer

· 12-22 13:55

The fact that the dollar has peaked should have been acknowledged long ago; isn't it a bit late to say that now? A 5% fall is really not much to look at.

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GweiWatcher

· 12-22 13:52

Is the dollar peaking and starting a downward cycle? Can this wave be traded until the end of the year? It feels a bit虚啊.

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ConfusedWhale

· 12-22 13:33

Is the dollar at its peak? Then our coin should have a turnaround, right? Haha

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DAOTruant

· 12-22 13:33

Is the US dollar peaking and heading downward for years? It sounds quite intimidating, but to be honest, a 5% fall is not that big of a deal. I get this logic of easing and tightening being favourable information for risk assets, but I just wonder if they will play people for suckers again.

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