The data during this period is truly eye-catching - among the new tokens issued in 2025, 85% have already fallen below their issuance price. The once ubiquitous narrative of "hundredfold potential" now appears to be outdated marketing rhetoric. This is not just an issue with individual projects, but a systemic phenomenon.

**Numbers Speak.** Among the 118 TGEs completed this year, about 100 tokens are priced below their issuance price. The median FDV has even fallen by 71%. Syndicate has evaporated 92% of its market value, and former star projects like Animecoin and Berachain have also been halved and halved again. What is behind all this?

First is the cost difference in the private placement round: institutions lock up at a cost of $0.001, and by the time of TGE, the valuation has been inflated to tens of billions of dollars. Retail investors often catch the last leg, which is usually at the peak. Secondly, there is the illusion of liquidity—new tokens have an average daily trading volume of less than one million dollars, and once a big player sells off, the price can crash suddenly. No matter how much enthusiasm there is in the community, it appears fragile in the face of trading depth.

In addition, with the combination of market makers and token lock-up periods, VC institutions can build a complete arbitrage loop: first participate in private placements, then control the market through market makers, and sell immediately after going live when liquidity is sufficient. Throughout the process, retail investors become the only buyers.

A more realistic point is that the technological advantages of institutions have become difficult to erase. A quantitative arbitrage system completes cross-chain harvesting in 0.0001 seconds, while your manual order placement speed seems slow in comparison.

**So what should we do?** Instead of chasing the dream of quick riches, it is better to learn to build a "anti-fragile" strategy — in an era where the market has become a battlefield of algorithms, individual investors need long-term risk management capabilities, rather than short-term profit illusions.