#数字资产市场洞察 has a question that I've been thinking about: As the market matures, can the price rhythm of Bitcoin still be determined solely by the supply shock that occurs every four years?

The pattern of Bitcoin halving is very clear - it occurs every four years, and each time it cuts the new supply in half:

In January 2009, the reward was 50 coins.
In November 2012, the first cut turned into 25 coins.
In July 2016, the second cut was made, reducing it to 12.5 coins.
The third cut in May 2020, reduced to 6.25 coins.
Fourth cut in April 2024, now it is 3.125 coins.
At this rate, it is highly likely to drop to 1.5625 coins by 2028.

This round of reductions will ultimately lock in the total supply of 21 million coins, and by around the year 2140, Bitcoin will be completely mined.

Historically, there is indeed a pattern: 12 to 18 months before a halving, a low point (bear market formation) usually occurs, and 12 to 18 months after the halving, a high point (market rally) can be reached.

The underlying logic of this cycle is very straightforward—first, the mechanism of scarcity itself is at work, and second, there is a psychological response from investors to the expectation of "reduced supply". When supply tightens, it can boost purchasing power; it sounds simple but is very effective.

However, the current situation is a bit delicate. A considerable proportion of the fixed total of 21 million coins has already flowed into the market. The relative impact of each halving is actually diminishing little by little. It is worth pondering how long this model can sustain.

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