Last night, global financial markets showed signs of a turning point. The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds rose above 2.07%, reaching a 27-year high. Behind this is a serious divergence in policy direction between the Japanese Central Bank and the government—while the Central Bank is raising interest rates to combat inflation, the government is massively increasing debt to stimulate growth. The market is beginning to rethink an old question: how much longer can the yen arbitrage trading model, which has lasted for thirty years, be sustained?

Interestingly, while Japan is mired in policy dilemmas, another wave of capital movement is accelerating. On-chain data shows that asset management giant BlackRock increased its holdings by 4,534 Ethereum and 45.379 Bitcoin in a single day, bringing its total crypto asset holdings to a scale of $79.127 billion. This is not a small-scale operation, but a clear institutional stance—at a point where global liquidity expectations are diverging, the giants are betting real money on digital assets.

It is more noteworthy that the variables of U.S. monetary policy are changing. The next candidate for the Federal Reserve Chair is reported to lean towards supporting interest rate cuts, which sharply contrasts with the market's previous pessimistic expectations regarding the global "tightening cycle."

The macro landscape has transformed into this: the east is tightening while the west is accumulating. The new high in Japanese government bond yields represents a tightening signal, but the shift towards easing in U.S. policy and the influx of institutional funds into the crypto market tell another story. The market's panic about "full tightening" seems to have been repriced.

The liquidity patterns of Bitcoin and Ethereum are also presenting new possibilities amid this differentiation. If the Federal Reserve indeed moves towards a loosening cycle while places like Japan face pressure for policy adjustments, then dollar-denominated digital assets may become a new pivot for institutions to reallocate global assets. BlackRock's timing and scale of this increase both suggest that institutions have a clear judgment regarding this shift.

The current market is at a crossroads. On one end, there is the warning brought by the record high in government bond yields, and on the other end, there is the continuous allocation of institutional funds. What is your perspective on the outcome of this macro game?