The recent actions of global Central Banks are quite interesting - the United States is lowering interest rates, Japan is raising interest rates, and China is staying put. What kind of trap is this? Digging deeper reveals that each is addressing its own challenges.

The Federal Reserve has indeed lowered rates three times this year, totaling 75 basis points, and the target interest rate range is now stuck at 3.5%-3.75%. But it's not that simple. The CPI in November was still 2.7%, above the 2% target, while the unemployment rate surged to 4.6%. This creates an awkward situation—wanting to prevent economic downturns while fearing that inflation will return. Therefore, this interest rate range has become a watchtower; it needs to maintain the attractiveness of dollar assets to foreign capital while gradually easing pressure on the job market.

Japan's situation is another story. They are fighting against deflation—core inflation has exceeded 2% for 44 consecutive months, and the depreciation of the yen has pushed up import costs. Therefore, the Bank of Japan gritted its teeth and raised interest rates to 0.75%, a new high in 30 years. The goal is clear: to lock in the virtuous cycle between inflation and wage growth. But being so aggressive is also risky because Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio is as high as 260%, who knows when it might break. So the central bank is like walking on a tightrope, needing to combat inflation while also considering the fiscal capacity.

China, on the other hand, remains as steady as a mountain. The one-year LPR is 3.0% and the five-year LPR is 3.5%, which have not changed for seven consecutive months. Why? Just look at the data — inflation is only 0.7%, and interest rates are already low. Blindly cutting rates further could compress banks' interest margins and easily trigger exchange rate fluctuations. Moreover, since the confidence of residents and enterprises has not fully recovered, the focus of policy has shifted to structural tools, using targeted support to bolster key areas such as technology and affordable housing, relying on fiscal and industrial policies to stabilize the economy.

The "great bifurcation" of interest rates is already rewriting the flow of global capital. As the dollar weakens, RMB assets appear more attractive; the yen carry trade has been disrupted; and risk assets like cryptocurrencies have experienced significant volatility. The pressing question now is: where will capital flow next? Will this interest rate divergence continue until 2026?

How do cryptocurrencies like ZEC and PORTAL perform under such macroeconomic conditions? They may serve as a window to observe the trend. The divergence in global interest rate policies reflects the differences in the conditions of each economy to some extent, and this disparity will ultimately find an outlet in the capital markets.