2025-12-23 21:23:43

Blindly buying the dip is not as good as waiting for a clear signal.

A couple of days ago, a friend left a message in the backend, saying he got caught up in a certain "iron bottom theory" and that his account shrank by 20% in three days. He asked me whether he should cut his losses or keep holding on. Every time there is a drastic market fluctuation, a group of people claiming to understand the bottom always pops up, confidently calling out trades. But in my opinion, this is not much different from crossing the street with your eyes closed.

I have seen this kind of scene during the last adjustment: some people confidently claimed that a certain support level was "unbreakable", and it was directly pierced that day; then someone else jumped out to promote the integer level as the "last line of defense", but it was also breached in the same way. The most terrifying thing is those who keep averaging down; what started as buying the dip turned into a forced liquidation. This is the cost of treating speculation as a trading rule.

**The real bottom is built on data**

In my years of watching the market, the bottom is never called out loud, but rather is the product of multiple signals resonating together.

Although the market is currently filled with a panic atmosphere, on-chain data is actually releasing some very interesting signals. The surrender indicator for Bitcoin has reached an all-time high, indicating that a large number of investors are in a state of extreme loss—this collective mindset of capitulation is often a precursor to a stage bottom.

At the same time, the losses of short-term holders have surged to the second highest level in history, second only to the wave of Japanese yen arbitrage collapse in 2024. After such extreme capitulation, Bitcoin typically forms a bottom in the next 1 to 3 months—this is a historical pattern.

Another easily overlooked signal is that the reserves of Bitcoin on exchanges are continuously declining. In the past 30 days, the total Bitcoin supply on exchanges has decreased by about 120,000 coins, now dropping below 2.6 million coins, reaching a new low since 2018. This reflects that Bitcoin is being massively withdrawn from exchanges and flowing into personal wallets—this is a typical characteristic before a bottom forms.

Don't rush to get off the car; it's meaningful only when you stack these signals together.

BTC-0.26%

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MoonBoi42

· 22h ago

Data speaks, advocating is all nonsense. Buying more as the price falls is really a suicidal operation; I've seen too many people play themselves out like this. On-chain data is indeed a bit interesting; with such a high capitulation indicator, how can it not be the bottom? The exchange's coin output hitting a new low is a signal that’s a bit interesting; it feels like it's about to start. However, let's wait a bit longer; confirmed signals are much more reliable than guesses.

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ImpermanentPhilosopher

· 22h ago

Those who keep buying as it falls really deserve it, turning themselves into a cash machine. --- The theory of iron bottoms should have died long ago; none of the advocates made any money. --- Data does not lie, but the problem is that most people simply cannot understand the data. --- I’ve seen the signal of Bitcoin outflow from the exchange; it’s indeed worth following. --- Capitulation indicators at historical highs? Is this time really different? I’ve heard that too many times. --- Losing 20% and still asking whether to hold on; it’s high time to reflect on why one listens to advocates. --- The logic behind accumulating bottom data is indeed reasonable, but only a few can catch it. --- I believe in this new low since 2018; clearing positions at the exchange usually means trouble. --- Rather than waiting for signals, it’s better to stop the reckless operations; that’s the biggest secret to making money. --- Anyone advocating for the bottom should be blacklisted; none are sincere. --- Short-term holders conceding defeat to this extent makes me feel that the bottom is indeed near. --- Not to mention anything else, this article at least does not hype things up; the data is right here.

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FUDwatcher

· 22h ago

The biggest fear when buying the dip is believing those "iron bottom theory" guys, as the account evaporated directly by 20%, isn’t this a living example of a failed case? Really, instead of following the crowd to advocate, it's much more reliable to look at on-chain data. The capitulation indicators are off the charts, and outflow funds are at an all-time high, now that makes sense. The exchange has 120,000 fewer Bitcoin, all flowing into personal Wallets; this signal couldn’t be clearer—the bottom is right in front of us. Don’t be fooled by those round numbers; just a few days ago, someone said a certain level was "unbreakable," and then it just pierced through, hilarious. Buying more as it falls? That’s just going from buying the dip to losing everything; have you ever heard of playing like that? Looking at the indicators, funds, and flows stacked together, this is the real bottom confirmation, not just talking about it. Still struggling with whether to play people for suckers or not? Wait for the data, don’t guess blindly.

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