2025-12-24 03:24:58

December 24th Beihai crude oil ( UKOIL ) intraday trend analysis.

**Expectations for a contraction on the supply side are warming up**

OPEC+ continues to maintain the production cut agreement for the first quarter of 2026, with Russia voluntarily increasing its cuts to 500,000 barrels per day. At the same time, the EIA in the U.S. reported an unexpected decline in crude oil inventories—down by 2.3 million barrels, while refinery utilization rates rebounded to 92%. Seasonal demand for heating during winter is rising, which is also strengthening the consumption side of crude oil.

**Logistics costs have driven up oil prices**

The situation in Red Sea shipping remains tense, with tanker detours causing freight costs to increase by 30% and travel time extending by an additional 10 days. The North Sea oil production platform has also suspended operations for a short period due to equipment maintenance. These disturbances on the supply side have further pushed up oil prices.

**The capital is continuously entering the market**

The non-commercial net long positions in NYMEX crude oil futures increased by 12,000 lots, the largest increase since December. Institutions' expectations for a recovery in spring demand are heating up, with a large influx of capital continuing to flow into the crude oil futures market.

From a trend logic perspective, the current North Sea crude oil is in a dual logic ascending structure driven by supply and demand at the hourly level, along with geopolitical premiums.

**Operational Ideas**

61.9 is the position for entering long. This is the upper edge of the dense trading area for spot North Sea crude oil on the hourly chart, and it also corresponds to the 1x volatility support of the crude oil ATR volatility indicator. The MA40 moving average on the hourly chart is also resonating here.

The replenishment can occur at 61.6. This is the lower edge of the previous supply and demand gap on the hourly chart, coinciding with the lower edge of the upward trend line. The MA60 moving average for seasonal demand for crude oil is also here—in the context of the winter heating oil demand peak, the support from the supply and demand gap has fundamental rigidity.

61.4 must be strictly defended. This is the key neckline level on the hourly chart, as well as the low point of the North Sea crude oil spot trading, coinciding with the lower Bollinger Band. Once this position is broken, the spot traders' hedging positions will quickly sell, and the geopolitical premium of Red Sea Shipping will also rapidly diminish.

The target is aimed at the range of 63.0-63.4.

(Personal opinion, for reference only)

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

11 Likes

Reward
11
3
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

StealthDeployer

· 4h ago

Red Sea ship blockage, OPEC production cuts, inventory declines... this combination is indeed fierce, and there is reason for oil prices to surge upward. I need to pay attention to the 61.9 long accumulation zone, but the feeling that institutions are rushing in this wave is a bit subtle. When funds are too concentrated, it can easily lead to a stampede.

View OriginalReply0

PensionDestroyer

· 19h ago

Things are still happening over there in the Red Sea, freight rates have risen by 30%, who can withstand this? Getting in at 61.9 feels a bit aggressive, we should at least wait for a pullback to 61.6 before making a move.

View OriginalReply0

PumpStrategist

· 19h ago

This wave pattern has formed, but those who are now following the trend to chase 61.9 are very likely to be given the命 by the institutions. Red Sea premium, OPEC production cuts, inventory decline... sounds perfect, but in reality, it's a typical "fully priced-in good news is unfavourable information". The MA40 and Bollinger Bands resonance sounds great, but have you looked at the chip distribution? Such level of repetition on the hourly chart is normal, don’t mistake short-term fluctuations for trend signals. If that defense line at 61.4 is really broken, the speed at which the hedge positions get dumped will be so fast that you won't be able to react. Spring demand recovery expectations? These are all stories fabricated by institutions; they said the same thing around this time last year, remember?

View OriginalReply0