Do you remember the market rally in 2020? Gold surged first, and various media outlets were flooding the headlines with talks of safe-haven, inflation, and the collapse of the dollar. And what happened? Bitcoin kept teasing below its previous highs, tormenting those without patience, until it finally broke through. Everyone knows what happened next.

Currently, the market is almost copying the 2020 scenario. Gold is reaching new highs again, with this wave of gains already exceeding 70%. And Bitcoin? Still hovering around @USD8.8@ billion, retracing nearly 30% from its October peak. Now, the dominant voices are bullish on gold, while Bitcoin faces a wave of skepticism and criticism.

Looking at the macro perspective: the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates three times in a row, the Treasury Department has been adding $40 billion in US debt each month, and global M2 money supply has hit a record high. In one word—liquidity is clearly flowing back, with a high degree of certainty.

So where did this money go? The patterns from the previous two cycles tell us that the first stop for capital flowback is gold. But here’s a key issue: gold has already entered an overbought zone, and the room for further upside is shrinking. The historical pattern is clear—when gold’s rally slows down and its attractiveness diminishes, capital begins to look for "more elastic" assets.

Bitcoin, coincidentally, is currently the most elastic asset. Gold’s market cap is about $31 trillion, while Bitcoin’s is only $1.75 trillion. If Bitcoin’s market cap rises to just 30% of gold’s, the corresponding price could reach $450,000.

So what we’re seeing now isn’t that Bitcoin is weak; it’s just that the story hasn’t yet reached its chapter for Bitcoin. The real big move never starts when gold is at its most exuberant, but when gold becomes less "sexy" and capital begins to shift away. History doesn’t simply repeat itself, but the patterns never lie.