Memory market supply and demand have reversed, Winbond Electronics (2344) surges and hits the daily limit up

The explosive growth of artificial intelligence applications is triggering intense turbulence in the global chips industry. Major international companies are focusing their resources on high-margin HBM production, leading to an unprecedented shortage crisis for traditional DRAM and flash memory. Amid this structural shortage wave, Winbond Electronics has become the most direct beneficiary, with its stock price hitting the daily limit-up today, closing at NT$67.9, up 9.87%. Both trading volume and value have topped the Taiwan stock market. More notably, this is the third consecutive trading day of gains for the stock, with a cumulative increase of 20.37%, driving the entire memory group higher.

Severe supply contraction causes DDR4 spot prices to double

The memory market is experiencing a turnaround from adversity to prosperity. The average inventory days of major DRAM suppliers have sharply shrunk from 13-17 weeks at the end of last year to just 2-4 weeks in October this year, hitting a record low in industry history. This significant destocking reflects an extremely tight supply in the market.

Especially noteworthy is the fundamental supply-demand reversal for DDR4 specifications since Q3. Leading global manufacturers prioritize capacity for high-end chips, gradually shifting DDR4 production lines to new DDR5 and HBM lines. The synchronized adjustments by Chinese peers have further intensified this trend, resulting in a sharp reduction in DDR4 supply.

However, demand remains robust. Enterprise-grade solid-state drives, industrial computers, and other mainstream storage devices still require DDR4 memory, with actual demand far exceeding market expectations. The spot price for 16Gb DDR4 modules has surged to about US$100 per chip, far above the industry reference price of US$45.5, with an astonishing increase that is hard to believe.

Winbond Electronics reports record high revenue, with dual advantages of capacity and pricing

Winbond’s consolidated revenue in November 2025 surged to NT$8.629 billion, nearly 5% growth month-on-month, and a 38.7% increase year-on-year, marking the best performance in over three years. Cumulative revenue for the first 11 months reached NT$79.635 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 5.85%.

Behind this impressive performance is the company’s precise insight into market trends. Winbond was among the first to initiate dual-axis capacity expansion plans, continuously increasing output of NOR Flash, NAND Flash, and mature process DRAM at its Taichung plant. Meanwhile, the new Kaohsiung factory’s monthly DRAM capacity will increase from the current 15,000 wafers to 24,000-25,000 wafers, with plans to start mass production of more advanced 16nm process products in the first quarter of 2026.

Looking at price trends, DDR4 contract prices have skyrocketed from over NT$1 per chip at the beginning of the year to 5-6 times that in Q4. The market has even seen rare “price inversion” where DDR4 spot prices surpass DDR5. Foreign institutional investors forecast that by 2026, the global DDR4 supply-demand gap will expand to over 10%, and the NOR Flash supply shortage will also continue to widen, with prices expected to rise more than 20% in the first quarter of next year.

Technical strength in stock price firmly established, institutional investors bullish on three fronts

Winbond today opened higher and continued to rise, with trading volume surpassing 200,000 shares by 10 a.m. The stock price touched the upper Bollinger Band and remained above all short-term moving averages, forming a clear bullish arrangement with strong short-term momentum.

More critically, capital flow signals a strong optimistic outlook. Last week, data showed that foreign investors, trust funds, and proprietary traders all increased their holdings of Winbond, with a combined net buy of over 50,000 shares. Among them, foreign investors alone bought over 42,000 shares in one week, becoming the main driving force.

The consensus among institutional investors stems from their firm judgment that the memory industry’s upward cycle will continue. Multiple foreign research reports indicate that the momentum of memory price increases is expected to extend into 2026, and they advise investors “not to rush to take profits at this time.” Winbond has been explicitly listed as a top recommended stock within the industry.

2026 growth prospects most promising, Taiwan memory stocks present opportunities

Looking ahead, Winbond will face the most favorable operating environment. Driven by diverse applications such as artificial intelligence, industrial control, automotive electronics, and network communications, market expectations suggest that Winbond will enter the most profitable phase of the memory industry cycle in 2026.

Analysts point out that the inventory turnover days of Taiwanese memory manufacturers like Winbond and Macronix have significantly decreased from the usual around 185 days to about 140 days, with tangible improvements in revenue and profitability. In the current environment where advanced technologies like high-bandwidth memory (HBM) are not yet fully developed, Taiwanese companies are benefiting from the “spillover effect” of rising prices for standard DDR4 and DDR5 memory.

Winbond’s stock price is currently poised to challenge the previous high of NT$69.1 since 2025. Supported by improving industry fundamentals, rising product prices, and concentrated capital, the future performance of the entire memory group will closely follow market price trends and actual end-user demand changes. This wave of adversity turning to prosperity offers investors a rare opportunity.