Prediction Markets Bet Sends Robinhood Stock Into Rally Mode—What's Behind the 235% Surge

Robinhood is making serious waves in the prediction markets arena, and Wall Street is taking notice. The trading platform’s shares climbed 9% on Wednesday, extending an impressive year-to-date performance that has now hit 235%—a testament to investor confidence in the company’s bold strategic repositioning.

The Fastest-Growing Revenue Driver

Before diving into the latest acquisition, it’s worth understanding why prediction markets matter so much to Robinhood’s growth story. The company’s existing partnership with Kalshi has already proven the category’s explosive potential. Cantor Fitzgerald analysts revealed that prediction markets have become Robinhood’s fastest-growing product line by revenue since launch. In just one year, the platform has facilitated over 9 billion contract trades involving more than 1 million customers—a scale that would have seemed impossible just 24 months ago.

This early success set the stage for the next move.

Acquiring LedgerX: The Game-Changing Deal

On Tuesday, Robinhood announced it would partner with Susquehanna International Group to take a 90% stake in LedgerX, a regulated cryptocurrency exchange that was previously entangled in the FTX collapse. The platform has been held by Miami International Holdings since FTX’s downfall, but now it’s heading to Robinhood’s portfolio.

“Robinhood is seeing strong customer demand for prediction markets, and we’re excited to build on that momentum,” said JB Mackenzie, the company’s vice president and general manager for futures and international operations.

The Regulatory License Goldmine

Here’s where the real strategic advantage lies. According to analysis from Cantor Fitzgerald, the LedgerX acquisition isn’t just about prediction markets—it’s about the regulatory framework that comes with it. Brett Knoblauch, a key analyst tracking the space, broke down what makes this acquisition transformative:

The deal grants Robinhood access to a Designated Contract Market (DCM) license and Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO) designation. As Knoblauch explained, while prediction markets are the headline draw, the DCM license opens the door for Robinhood to offer futures and options on futures. The DCO designation allows the entity to clear trades in futures, options on futures, and swaps. Additionally, the Securities Exchange Futures (SEF) credential enables Robinhood to offer swap trading platforms, including standardized interest-rate swaps and credit derivatives.

What This Means for Growth

The combination of proven customer demand—demonstrated by those 9 billion prediction market contracts—and newly acquired regulatory licenses positions Robinhood at an inflection point. The company can now expand its derivatives offerings while simultaneously capturing more of the prediction markets explosion. It’s a rare convergence of customer pull and regulatory capability, which likely explains why the market responded so enthusiastically.

The 235% YTD surge reflects investors’ belief that this is just the beginning of Robinhood’s transformation from a retail trading app into a comprehensive financial services platform with institutional-grade infrastructure.