2025-12-24 22:23:28

Good-looking data does not necessarily mean a bullish market. After the non-farm payroll report was released last night, there are many hidden nuances behind the seemingly prosperous numbers, which is not unfamiliar to those who have been active in the crypto market.

I saw headlines everywhere claiming an increase of 64,000 new jobs, but at the same time, the unemployment rate soared to 4.6%—this is a classic case of data conflicting. Many people rush to enter the market just by reading the headlines, unaware that this report has long been doctored with some water.

**Why is there a problem with this non-farm payroll data?**

First, look at the number of new jobs. What is the basis for the "better-than-expected" figure in November? October's data was directly revised downward by 105,000. To use an analogy, you first lose $100, then recover $60—looks like a profit, but you're still losing money. Data that appears to improve month-over-month due to prior revisions cannot truly reflect a strengthening employment market.

What's more troublesome is that the data from the past three months has been cumulatively revised downward by 33,000—it's like a company being asked to recalculate its financial reports for three consecutive quarters. Can you still fully trust the latest earnings report?

Secondly, the quality of the data itself is questionable. The impact of the U.S. government shutdown is still unfolding, directly affecting the integrity of the survey. Coupled with sample bias, seasonal adjustments, and other factors, the reference value of this report is greatly diminished.

**Rising unemployment rate is the key signal**

Compared to the "pretty" employment figures, the rising unemployment rate is more worth noting. From a market perspective, an increasing unemployment rate often indicates weakening economic momentum, which will exert substantial pressure on risk appetite in the crypto market.

So rather than chasing after a single employment number, it’s better to look at the contradictions behind these data—those are the real things that can guide trading decisions.

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CryptoCross-TalkClub

· 4h ago

Laughing to death, non-farm payroll data looks just like my cross-talk performances—seem lively on the surface but are actually just repetitive jokes. The headline traders are about to suffer heavy losses again; a rising unemployment rate is the real signal, alright. Data, you know, changes more often than I revise my scripts. Trust it less than your own K-line charts. Previous values are just a trap, and the subsequent numbers look as fragile as paper, yet some still treasure them. The crypto market is like this—beautiful data often hides the deepest traps. We, the retail investors, have long been numb. Speaking of which, with the unemployment rate rising so much, the risk appetite in the crypto circle probably sank straight to the core of the Earth. It's really a big deal—non-farm payroll reports are just traps set for retail investors; pretty headlines, lousy data, classic move.

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AllInAlice

· 4h ago

It's another headline murder scene; the unemployment rate is the real deal, brother.

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TokenomicsDetective

· 4h ago

Another data magic show; headline writers should wake up.

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RetroHodler91

· 4h ago

Data can be deceptive; the unemployment rate is the real truth. 64,000 new jobs sounds good, but with such a large downward revision, can you believe it?

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