Global Forex "Double Heaven": US Dollar Breaks 100, Yen Hits October Low, Nvidia Earnings Spark Rally

November 19, the global financial markets experienced a night driven by multiple catalysts. The US Dollar Index broke through the 100 mark to a high of 100.24, USD/JPY rose to 157.176, reaching a new high since January this year, and NVIDIA’s after-hours stock price increased by over 4%—these data reflect the market’s re-pricing of risk assets and adjustments in monetary policy expectations.

Japan’s Monetary Policy Dilemma Worsens Yen Depreciation

Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki stated after meeting with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda that the government is “closely watching” market developments with a “high sense of urgency,” but this did not reverse the yen’s downward trend. USD/JPY closed up 1.08%, hitting a ten-month low.

The market logic is simple: new Prime Minister Fumio Kishida advocates expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, which conflict with the Bank of Japan’s gradual rate hikes. Reports indicate that Japan’s stimulus plan could exceed 20 trillion yen (about $129 billion), funded through an additional budget of approximately 17 trillion yen.

Marten, Head of Currency Research at DZ BANK, said that increased yen volatility has raised market expectations of intervention risks, but the government faces a dilemma—intervention methods have historically had uncertain success in Japan. This policy uncertainty has directly increased selling pressure on the yen, causing it to continue weakening.

UK Inflation Eases, Opening Room for Rate Cuts

UK consumer price inflation in October fell to 3.6%, below the previous month’s 3.8%, in line with expectations from the Bank of England. This data reinforces market expectations of a rate cut by the Bank of England in December.

Rajat, Chief UK Economist at Deutsche Bank, stated that Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will have more confidence to lower the benchmark rate below 4%. As a result, GBP/USD closed down 0.68% at 1.3057, after briefly touching a weekly low of 1.3043. The UK budget announcement scheduled for the 26th remains a key variable for the pound this month.

NVIDIA Earnings Drive Dollar Strength

Global stock markets came under pressure this week due to concerns over AI stock valuations, with NVIDIA’s Q3 earnings report serving as a critical turning point. The company’s revenue for the third quarter reached $57 billion, up 62% year-over-year, with data center revenue of $51.2 billion surpassing the expected $49 billion. More importantly, NVIDIA’s guidance for Q4 revenue is about $65 billion, well above the analyst consensus estimate of $61.6 billion.

CEO Jensen Huang stated in the earnings report that Blackwell chips are selling out rapidly, and all cloud GPUs are sold out, indicating strong supply-demand dynamics. Market doubts about the AI industry’s outlook were instantly alleviated, and NVIDIA’s after-hours stock price rose by over 4%.

ING Forex Strategist Pessolée called this earnings release a “critical moment”—rarely does a single earnings report have a major impact on the forex market, but NVIDIA’s data quality is enough to serve as a market sentiment indicator. This better-than-expected performance has encouraged capital flows back into risk assets, supporting the appreciation of the dollar.

The Logic Behind the Breakthrough of the Dollar Index Above 100

The US Dollar Index slightly broke through the 100 mark to a high of 100.24, closing up 0.53%. Pessolée analyzed that the dollar’s strength reflects safe-haven capital inflows and market doubts about the Federal Reserve’s December decision.

According to CME FedWatch, the market-implied probability of a 25 bps rate cut at the December 10 meeting has risen to 47%, up from 42.4% the previous day. President Trump criticized Fed Chair Powell again on Tuesday, saying he wants to “kick him out,” and Powell’s term will end in May next year, adding uncertainty to policy expectations.

Another factor supporting the dollar’s appreciation is the upcoming September non-farm payrolls data to be released on Thursday. Initial jobless claims data show a surge in unemployment benefits claims from mid-September to mid-October in the US.

Risk Assets Under Pressure

Under the dual pressure of a rising dollar and declining risk appetite, AUD/USD fell 0.3% to 0.6489, NZD/USD declined 0.5% to 0.5627, and NOK/USD dropped 0.4% to 10.1418. Morningstar Chief Researcher Lamont pointed out that NVIDIA’s earnings have become a macro event for measuring contemporary decisive investment themes, and its performance will continue to influence global financial markets.