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That Bitcoin four-year cycle fractal chart circulating wildly in the crypto community has almost become everyone's common language. Interpreting the chart, we are precisely at the explosion point of the fifth super cycle—mid-term resistance has been broken, and the short-term target given by technical analysis is $115,000 to $125,000. According to the most optimistic "moon case," it could even surge to $150,000 to $180,000. Looking at this beautiful trend line, voices in the community are growing louder, as if the code of wealth is written right on that chart.
But I made a choice that some friends might not understand: to systematically start converting part of my Bitcoin profits into stablecoins and allocate them into related ecosystems to earn stable returns.
Why? Because I’ve seen it too many times. Every recognized "parabolic start" has become a grave for some investors—they get blinded by FOMO, go all-in, and end up being ruthlessly shaken out during subsequent intense volatility. I believe in cycles, but I also believe in a simple principle: in the face of extreme fluctuations, protecting existing profits is far more practical than trying to precisely predict the top.
This isn’t about being bearish on the market; it’s a form of respect for the market. Cycle analysis provides a macro probability, but it’s based on the assumption that history will repeat itself strictly. The reality? The background of each cycle is changing—this time, with new participants like spot ETFs, the flow of institutional funds, and geopolitical uncertainties. No matter how exquisite the historical fractal, it cannot fully account for these new variables.
While everyone is calculating how much they can make, I’m thinking about what it feels like to sleep soundly in this highly volatile market. Using some of the realized gains to secure a certain, sustainable return may not sound as sexy, but it gives me what I need most when the next wave of turbulence hits—the clear-headedness and the chips to avoid being forced out.