AUD/USD Faces Persistent Selling Pressure; Critical Support Level Near Mid-0.6600s Ahead of US Jobs Data

The Australian Dollar continues its downward trajectory against the US Dollar, with AUD/USD trading around 0.6630—down approximately 0.10% during early Asian dealings. At current levels, converting 25 AUD to USD yields roughly $16.58, reflecting the pair’s recent weakness.

Multiple Headwinds Pressure the Currency Pair

The fourth consecutive day of selling reflects a confluence of unfavorable developments weighing on risk sentiment. The employment figures released from Australia last Thursday painted a mixed picture, failing to provide clear directional guidance for the currency. Simultaneously, disappointing economic indicators from China—the world’s largest trading partner for Australian commodities—have reignited concerns about regional growth prospects. This risk-off environment naturally favors the safe-haven US Dollar while pressuring the more cyclical Australian Dollar, creating a difficult setup for AUD/USD bulls.

Policy Divergence Provides a Floor for Losses

Despite these headwinds, the pair’s downside appears contained by divergent central bank expectations. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock signaled last week that rate cuts may be off the table, while simultaneously noting that the Board is assessing scenarios where increases might become necessary. This hawkish messaging counters the prevailing USD strength narrative.

On the flipside, the market is pricing in additional Federal Reserve rate cuts, with the USD Index languishing near seven-week lows. Speculation surrounding a dovish successor to Chair Jerome Powell further weakens the Greenback, providing underlying support to AUD/USD and offsetting some of the risk-related selling.

Waiting for Catalyst Clarity

Market participants appear hesitant to establish significant directional positions before the release of October’s Nonfarm Payrolls—originally scheduled but delayed. This major event carries potential to reshape rate-cut expectations and influence both currencies meaningfully. Given this uncertainty, aggressive downside momentum appears unlikely until after this critical data point, suggesting any dips could attract value-seeking buyers rather than trigger panic selling.

Technical Perspective

The three-week uptrend preceding this recent weakness requires strong confirmation of breakdown before declaring the trend exhausted. Currently, the pair oscillates near support with conviction lacking on either side.