Is gold waiting for a jump to $5000? The complete roadmap for gold price forecasts in 2026

Gold prices followed a strong upward trend during 2025, reaching $4,300 per ounce in October before declining toward $4,000 in November. The question now: Will this rally continue into 2026 or is the market awaiting a correction? The answer depends on specific factors that we will analyze in detail.

Data that lifted gold to 2025’s peak

During the first half of 2025, total demand for gold reached 1,249 tons in Q2, up 3% annually, but the value jumped to $132 billion, a 45% increase. This is no coincidence – investors are rapidly reallocating their portfolios toward safe-haven assets at an unprecedented pace.

Gold ETFs absorbed massive inflows, with assets under management reaching $472 billion, and holdings totaling 3,838 tons – very close to the historical peak of 3,929 tons. This means that new investors, (28% of investors in developed markets), added gold for the first time last year and have remained committed even during correction periods.

North America dominated demand with 345.7 tons out of a total of 618.8 tons until September 2025, supported by $21 billion in fund inflows in the first half.

Central banks: the silent player that will determine the path

Central banks have not stopped accumulating. They added 244 tons in Q1 alone – a 24% increase over the five-year quarterly average. Now, 44% of global central banks hold gold reserves, up from only 37% in 2024.

China alone added 65 tons during the first half, marking the 22nd consecutive month of buying. Turkey surpassed 600 tons, and India continues strongly. The World Gold Council forecasts that central bank purchases will remain the most supportive factor for demand through the end of 2026, especially in emerging markets protecting their currencies from exchange rate volatility.

Supply: the narrow bottleneck explaining prices

Mine production reached 856 tons in Q1 – a record high – but increased by only 1% annually. The problem: demand is rising much faster. Additionally, recycled gold decreased by 1% as holders prefer to keep their old gold in anticipation of higher prices.

Global average extraction costs rose to $1,470 per ounce by mid-2025 – the highest in a decade. This means that expanding production will be slow and costly, deepening the supply-demand gap and supporting bullish gold price forecasts.

Federal Reserve and the interest rate game

In October 2025, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00%, marking the second cut since December 2024. Market expectations price in an additional 25 basis point cut in December, making it the third rate reduction this year.

A BlackRock report suggests that rates could reach 3.4% by the end of 2026 in a moderate scenario. If this occurs, real yields on bonds will decline, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold – which is positive for prices.

But caution remains: all this depends on inflation stability and labor market responses. Any negative surprise could change the game.

Global monetary policies: divergence boosting gold

The Fed is easing while the European Central Bank has tightened its stance to combat inflation, and the Bank of Japan remains accommodative. This divergence has created a dovish environment making gold a safe haven globally. More uncertainty = higher demand for the yellow metal.

Dollar and bonds: the core link

Gold moves inversely to the dollar and real yields. In 2025, the dollar index declined by 7.64% from its early-year peak, and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields fell from 4.6% to 4.07% by November 21. This double decline provided a strong boost to institutional demand.

Bank of America analysts see that continuing this trend could support gold price expectations for 2026, especially with real yields stabilizing around 1.2%.

Geopolitical risks: tightening on prices

Trade tensions between the US and China, Middle East conflicts, prompted investors to increase their exposure to gold. Reuters reported that geopolitical uncertainty in 2025 boosted demand by 7% annually. As tensions escalated, prices surged above $3,400 in July, then surpassed $4,300 in October.

Any new shock in 2026 could push prices higher, especially if linked to trade or energy issues.

Global debt: an ongoing risk

Global public debt exceeds 100% of GDP, according to IMF data. As these concerns rise, investors turn to gold as a hedge against loss of purchasing power. Bloomberg data shows that 42% of major hedge funds increased their gold holdings in Q3 2025.

Major forecasts for gold prices 2026

HSBC: expects gold to reach $5,000 in the first half of 2026, with an annual average of $4,600 (compared to $3,455 average in 2025).

Bank of America: raised its forecast to $5,000 as a peak, with an average of $4,400, but warned of a possible short-term correction.

Goldman Sachs: adjusted its forecast to $4,900, citing stronger inflows into gold ETFs and central bank purchases.

J.P. Morgan: expects gold to reach $5,055 by mid-2026.

Consensus: a range of $4,800-$5,000 as a potential peak, with an average of $4,200-$4,800 for the year.

Correction: a realistic obstacle

Despite optimism, HSBC warned that momentum could weaken in the second half of 2026, with a correction toward $4,200 if investors take profits. However, a drop below $3,800 is unlikely unless a major economic shock occurs.

Goldman Sachs warned that staying above $4,800 could test the market’s “price credibility”—the ability of gold to sustain high levels.

J.P. Morgan and Deutsche Bank agree that gold has entered a new price zone that is difficult to break downward, thanks to a strategic shift in investor perception of it as a long-term asset.

Technical analysis: neutral signals before the next move

Gold closed on November 21, 2025, at $4,065 after touching $4,381 on October 20. The price broke below the rising channel on the daily chart but remains attached to the main upward trendline.

Main support: $4,000 – a clear daily close below this could target $3,800 (50% Fibonacci retracement).

First resistance: $4,200, followed by $4,400 and $4,680.

RSI: stabilized at 50, indicating neutrality – selling and buying pressures are balanced.

MACD: above zero confirms the overall bullish trend.

Primary scenario: sideways trading between $4,000 and $4,220 in the near term, with the overall picture remaining positive as long as the price stays above the main trendline.

Gold price outlook in the Middle East

Egypt: Based on global price forecasts, gold could reach approximately 522,580 EGP per ounce, a 158.46% increase compared to current prices.

Saudi Arabia: If the optimistic scenario of $5,000 per ounce materializes, it could translate to about 18,750-19,000 SAR (at an exchange rate of 3.75-3.80 SAR per USD).

UAE: Similarly, the price could be around 18,375-19,000 AED per ounce.

Important note: These forecasts depend on stable exchange rates (achieved in the countries) and continued global demand without major economic shocks.

Conclusion: what after $4,300?

Gold price forecasts for 2026 suggest movements beyond $5,000 in the optimistic scenario, but the path is not smooth. The trajectory will depend on:

• Continued weakness of the dollar and low real yields
• Sustained strong central bank purchases
• No sudden economic shocks
• Inflation remains within expectations

If these conditions are met, gold is poised to record new all-time highs. Conversely, if deviations occur – such as a decline in inflation or renewed market confidence – the metal may settle into a long-term range, preventing reaching targeted levels.

The only certainty: gold is no longer just a volatile asset but has become a core strategic component in global investor portfolios.