Is Thailand's Stock Rally Running Out of Steam? SET Eyes Pullback As Tech Concerns Weigh

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) has shown resilience over recent days, recovering from a sharp correction that erased more than 20 points and wiped out 1.6 percent of its value. However, momentum may be stalling. The benchmark index currently hovers slightly above the 1,280-point mark after climbing 10.81 points or 0.85 percent on Monday to close at 1,280.07, but Tuesday’s session could test these gains as global headwinds intensify.

The Thailand Plug Point: Valuation Vulnerability in Tech Stocks

The key risk factor for Asian markets, particularly Thailand’s tech-heavy portfolio, revolves around valuation concerns. With Nvidia set to report quarterly earnings after market close on Wednesday, investors are reassessing their exposure to technology stocks across the region. This uncertainty has already hammered U.S. indices, signaling that Asian bourses won’t be immune to the selloff.

Monday’s Mixed Session Paints a Picture of Caution

Trading activity showed broad participation with 292 gainers against 185 decliners and 175 stocks closing flat across 6.201 billion shares valued at 33.899 billion baht. Strength came from varied sectors—consumer goods, financials, industrials, property, resources, and technology all posted gains. Notable performers included B. Grimm’s impressive 4.86 percent surge, BTS Group’s 3.82 percent rally, and Thai Oil’s stunning 6.34 percent jump. However, defensive positioning appeared evident with Banpu sliding 1.74 percent and Bangkok Dusit Medical tumbling 1.53 percent.

Banking stocks provided steady support, with Bangkok Bank up 1.61 percent, Kasikornbank jumping 1.92 percent, and Siam Commercial Bank collecting 1.57 percent. Energy names were mixed—while PTT Exploration and Production gained 0.94 percent and PTT Global Chemical vaulted 1.49 percent, PTT Oil & Retail sank 0.73 percent, reflecting sector-specific pressures.

Wall Street’s Afternoon Collapse Sets Negative Tone

The U.S. market’s poor performance on Monday—with the Dow dropping 557.24 points (1.18 percent) to 46,590.24, NASDAQ sliding 192.51 points (0.84 percent) to 22,708.07, and S&P 500 declining 61.70 points (0.92 percent) to 6,672.41—signals trouble ahead for Asian equities. The afternoon collapse, triggered by resurging valuation anxieties, typically precedes weakness in regional markets.

Macro Headwinds: Data Lag and Rate Uncertainty

Traders face an additional layer of uncertainty as delayed U.S. economic data from the government shutdown will eventually hit markets. Though these reports are backward-looking, they could reshape expectations around Federal Reserve policy ahead of December’s monetary policy decision. This creates a knife-edge environment where every data point matters.

Commodity Markets Signal Deeper Caution

Oil prices edged lower with West Texas Intermediate crude for December delivery dipping $0.09 (0.13 percent) to $60.01 per barrel, reflecting persistent oversupply concerns and a structural supply-demand imbalance. This suggests underlying demand weakness in the global economy—another headwind for Thailand’s export-reliant market.

Bottom Line: Thailand’s Rally Faces Headwinds

While the SET’s recent recovery is encouraging, the combination of tech sector valuation pressures, U.S. market weakness, and macro uncertainty creates a fragile backdrop for Tuesday’s session. Investors should watch the 1,280-point level closely—a break below could signal the start of a deeper correction, especially if Wall Street and Nvidia’s earnings disappoint.