Corn Markets Display Pressure Ahead of USDA Assessment

Corn futures encountered softer conditions on Monday as market participants adjusted positions in anticipation of Tuesday’s pivotal USDA commodity report. Contract prices retreated modestly, declining by fractional amounts up to 2 cents per bushel. The CmdtyView national benchmark for cash corn slipped 1 1/4 cents to settle at $3.98 1/4 per bushel.

Export Activity and Types of Fades in Demand

Weekly export inspection data illuminated mixed signals in corn shipment patterns. The week ending December 4 saw 1.453 million metric tons (57.2 million bushels) of corn inspected for export—a 10.89% sequential decline but representing a 36% year-over-year increase. Mexico dominated destination rankings with 520,691 MT, followed by Japan’s 310,828 MT and Taiwan’s 81,209 MT allocation.

The types of fades evident in near-term demand were offset by stronger year-to-date performance. Marketing year cumulative shipments reached 20.63 MMT (812.2 million bushels), marking a substantial 69.36% increase compared to the prior year’s equivalent period.

Sales Data Disappoints Trader Expectations

USDA’s catch-up export sales report revealed a softer booking environment, with just 979,525 MT of corn sold during the week ending November 6. This result disappointed consensus expectations of 1-2 million metric tons and represented the lowest marketing year weekly total to date. The shortfall underscores caution among international buyers navigating uncertain supply dynamics.

Looking Ahead: USDA Projections and Global Supply Context

Tuesday’s monthly WASDE assessment will provide critical direction for near-term price action. Bloomberg-surveyed analysts anticipate U.S. corn ending stocks of 2.145 billion bushels—a 9 million bushel reduction from November’s projection if realized. This tightening inventory narrative contrasts with emerging concerns about increased Brazilian production.

Brazil’s private AgRural consultancy estimates the 2025/26 corn crop at 135.3 MMT, down 5.8 MMT from prior year levels. However, USDA’s current estimate—subject to Tuesday’s potential revision—stands at 131 MMT, creating divergence that will influence global pricing expectations.

Session Close Summary

December 25 corn futures closed at $4.36 1/4, down 1/2 cent. Nearby cash corn settled at $3.98 1/4, down 1 1/4 cents. March 26 contracts declined 1 cent to $4.43 3/4, while May 26 corn retreated 1 cent to close at $4.51 1/4.