Soybean Complex Faces Selling Pressure as Weekly Losses Mount

The soybean complex is encountering notable weakness as the trading session progresses, with front-month contracts posting declines of 5-7 cents in afternoon dealings. The nationally averaged cash soybean price stands at $10.00 1/2, reflecting a 6-cent pullback from previous levels. In the related products, Soymeal futures are rallying to $1.20, up 90 cents, while Soy Oil is advancing 68 points at midday trading.

Export Activity and Sales Flow Show Mixed Signals

The USDA announced a private export commitment of 136,000 MT heading to China, part of this morning’s trade activity. However, inspection data reveals a more cautious picture: weekly soybean shipments totaled 795,661 MT (29.24 mbu) during the week ending December 11. This represents a considerable 22.4% decrease week-over-week and a sharper 59.6% decline when compared to the same period a year ago.

Regional distribution of shipments shows China leading as the primary buyer with 202,043 MT, followed by 136,515 MT to Germany and 80,425 MT to Vietnam. Year-to-date marketing shipments have accumulated at 13.702 MMT (503.47 mbu), revealing a concerning 46.3% contraction compared to the prior year.

Sales Report Signals Robust Domestic Demand Despite Timing Delays

The Export Sales report, released with a backlog this morning, documented 2.232 MMT in new soybean sales commitments for the week ending November 20, landing at the upper boundary of the 0.8-3 MMT forecast range. China accounted for 2.14 MMT of these sales, largely reflecting previously announced daily transactions. Combined with this week’s USDA sale, cumulative known sales to China now stand at 4.2 MMT.

Soymeal futures saw 150,951 MT of fresh sales commitments, positioning in the lower portion of the 100,000-450,000 MT range. Soy Oil sales rebounded to 7,540 MT from the previous week, staying near the lower end of 5,000-25,000 MT projections.

Crushing Activity Reaches November Peak Despite Seasonal Adjustments

NOPA membership data disclosed this morning shows processors crushed 216.04 million bushels during November. While this reflects a 5.1% decrease from October’s record-setting pace, it still exceeds year-ago levels by 11.83% and stands as a monthly record. Soybean oil inventories expanded significantly to 1.513 billion lbs, up 15.95% since October’s close and representing a substantial 39.58% year-over-year increase.

Brazilian planting progress continues advancing, with AgRural estimating 97% of the soybean acreage in the ground as of Thursday, indicating near-completion of the planting window.

Contract-by-Contract Snapshot: Continued Price Pressure Across Months

Jan 26 Soybeans are quoted at $10.70 3/4, showing a 6-cent decline. Nearby Cash remains at $10.00 1/2, down 6 cents. Mar 26 Soybeans are at $10.80, with a steeper 6 3/4 cent retreat. May 26 Soybeans are priced at $10.91 1/2, off 5 1/2 cents, indicating that weakness extends across the futures curve despite some modest stabilization in deferred contracts.