Chinese Demand Pressures Soybean Complex as Friday Trading Weakens

2025-12-26 02:35:16

Abstract generation in progress

Soybean futures are displaying notable weakness in Friday trading, with contracts declining 10 to 12 cents by midday sessions. The cmdtyView national average Cash Bean price has slipped to $10.37 1/4, representing an 11 1/2 cent pullback. Supporting the broader complex, Soybean Oil futures remain relatively stable with gains up to 6 points, while Soymeal contracts are trading lower at $1.50 to $2.80. Overnight delivery activity showed 78 notices issued against December bean oil contracts.

Trade Flow Updates Signal Moderate Demand

The USDA disclosed a private export sale totaling 462,000 MT of soybeans destined for China, according to this morning’s announcements. This transaction elevates total known Chinese purchases to 2.845 MMT for the current marketing year. The ongoing shipment pipeline reflects steady international demand dynamics despite the Friday price weakness.

Looking ahead to weekly export data, the USDA will release the backlog covering the week ending 11/6 on Monday. Soybean bookings are anticipated between 0.45 to 1.6 MMT across all destinations, with preliminary daily reports indicating 132,000 MT allocated to China and 117,000 MT to unspecified buyers. Secondary products including Soymeal are estimated between 50,000 and 400,000 MT, while Bean Oil sales are projected at 5,000 to 25,000 MT.

Supply Metrics and Forward Guidance

The USDA will refresh its WASDE crop assessment on Tuesday, with market participants anticipating US soybean ending stocks of 306 mbu—a 16 mbu increase from the previous month’s projection if confirmed. Meanwhile, Brazil’s trade ministry reported November soybean exports at 4.2 MMT, reflecting a 37.62% sequential decline but demonstrating 64.4% growth compared to the prior year’s November performance.

Contract Pricing Summary

Jan 26 Soybeans are trading at $11.07 3/4, down 11 3/4 cents from previous levels. Nearby Cash positions settled at $10.37 1/4, displaying an 11 1/2 cent decrease. Mar 26 Soybeans retreated to $11.17 1/2, down 11 1/4 cents, while May 26 Soybeans are at $11.26 3/4, showing a 10 1/2 cent pullback. These declines across the forward curve reflect the broader market sentiment surrounding Chinese purchasing patterns and supply considerations.

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