Corn Prices Slide as Market Awaits USDA Guidance

2025-12-26 02:35:37

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Corn futures market fades into softer territory on Monday, with traders moving to square positions ahead of Tuesday’s anticipated USDA report release. December contract losses remain modest, ranging from fractional to 2-cent declines. The national average cash corn price retreated to $3.98 1/4 per bushel, down 1 1/4 cents from prior trading sessions.

Export Activity Shows Mixed Signals

Weekly export inspection data reveals 1.453 million metric tons (57.2 million bushels) of corn shipped through December 4, marking a notable 10.89% pullback from the previous week’s volume. However, the year-over-year comparison presents a brighter picture, with shipments up 36% compared to the same week last year.

Destination-wise, Mexico leads as the primary buyer with 520,691 MT of corn imports, followed by Japan at 310,828 MT and Taiwan accounting for 81,209 MT. Marketing year totals have climbed to 20.63 MMT (812.2 mbu), representing a substantial 69.36% increase on a year-over-year basis.

Sales Data Falls Short of Expectations

The USDA’s export sales catchup report released Monday morning showed disappointing results, with only 979,525 MT of corn booked during the week ending November 6. This figure significantly underperformed trader expectations of 1 to 2 MMT in weekly bookings and hit marketing year lows, adding pressure to near-term sentiment.

Market Awaits USDA Adjustments

Tuesday’s monthly WASDE report carries significant weight for price direction. Bloomberg survey consensus points to 2.145 billion bushels in U.S. corn ending stocks, which would represent a 9 million bushel decline from November’s projection if confirmed.

Brazilian supply estimates add another variable to the mix. AgRural’s assessment of the 2025/26 Brazilian corn crop totals 135.3 MMT, down 5.8 MMT from the prior year. The USDA’s competing estimate of 131 MMT remains under review and subject to Tuesday’s official adjustment.

Price Action Summary

December 25 corn futures settled at $4.36 1/4, declining 1/2 cent, while March 26 contracts closed at $4.43 3/4, down 1 cent. May 26 futures ended at $4.51 1/4, also posting a 1-cent loss. The nearby cash market mirrored broader weakness at $3.98 1/4, reflecting the cautious positioning ahead of the USDA data release.

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