#降息预期 Bitcoin's rebound after holding at the $80,000 support level is worth noting— the 200-day moving average slope has turned positive, which is the first such signal in the past month, indicating that short-term bullish momentum is indeed recovering. From on-chain data, institutional players continue to accumulate; since December 1, smart wallets have added over 42K BTC, showing that demand-side support remains.

However, the rate cut pricing has essentially been completed, and the source of subsequent momentum is uncertain. The key hurdle is the 52-week high—breaking through it could open up a larger upward space; otherwise, it will just be a rebound correction. More concerning is that retail investors are still reducing holdings, which suppresses the rally. Whether institutional absorption can be sustained before macro conditions clarify will directly impact ETF buy-in strength.

The probability of a Christmas rally at year-end is low, but the structure has already improved. The key is whether the Federal Reserve's policy expectations can continue to remain accommodative next year—if only one rate cut occurs, the uncertainty in risk assets will be reintroduced. Continue to monitor whale movements and capital flows; data will be more convincing than stories.