Two Quantum Computing Stocks Rally 3,750% and 1,770% — Here's Why Wall Street Remains Bullish on Both

Ken Griffin, the legendary hedge fund manager whose net worth reflects decades of shrewd investment decisions at Citadel Advisors, made a striking move in Q3 by purchasing stakes in two red-hot quantum computing companies. His moves signal confidence in a sector that Wall Street’s analyst community views optimistically despite significant valuation concerns.

The Trades That Turned Heads

Citadel Advisors acquired 51,700 shares of Rigetti Computing and 122,600 shares of D-Wave Quantum during the third quarter. Though these represent relatively small positions relative to Citadel’s massive portfolio, they’re noteworthy because every Wall Street analyst tracking these companies forecasts higher prices ahead.

Rigetti Computing has skyrocketed 3,750% since the start of 2023, while D-Wave Quantum has climbed 1,770% since January 2024. Yet both stocks remain in the crosshairs of debate: Are they poised for further gains, or are they destined for painful corrections?

Understanding Rigetti’s Edge and Its Danger Zone

Rigetti operates in the superconducting quantum computing space, where microscopic circuits cooled near absolute zero create qubits that function differently than traditional binary bits. The company distinguishes itself through vertical integration — controlling everything from processor manufacturing to cloud infrastructure — and pioneered multi-chip quantum architecture.

Wall Street’s consensus reflects this confidence. Seven analysts covering Rigetti peg the median target at $40 per share, suggesting 42% upside from current levels. The bull case tops out at $51 (82% potential gains), while even the bears cite $35 as a floor (25% upside).

But here’s the catch: Rigetti’s price-to-sales ratio of 1,080x dwarfs even the most expensive S&P 500 constituent. That valuation structure is untenable. The quantum computing market itself will be 450 times smaller than artificial intelligence by 2030, and practical, commercially-useful quantum computers remain at least one or two decades away. This mismatch between current valuation and realistic timelines suggests significant downside risk ahead.

D-Wave’s Different Approach — Same Valuation Problem

D-Wave takes a contrasting path through quantum annealing rather than gate-based systems. This approach offers practical value today by excelling at optimization problems, even though it cannot run most quantum algorithms. D-Wave currently deploys annealing systems with over 4,000 physical qubits — far ahead of Rigetti’s roadmap.

Eleven analysts follow D-Wave, setting a median price target of $40 (48% upside from $27). Bullish outliers project $48 (77% gains), while bears settle for $35 (30% gains).

The operational picture appears stronger: Q3 revenue doubled to $3.7 million. However, net losses reached $18.1 million. The company’s dilution tells the real story — outstanding shares jumped 31% this year and 117% over two years as management traded shareholder value for balance sheet strength.

D-Wave’s valuation at 325x sales looks cheaper than Rigetti on paper, but both trade at absurd multiples for a sector growing just 21% annually through decade’s end.

The Harsh Reality Check

While Griffin’s moves grab headlines, the math doesn’t work. Quantum computing represents an exciting frontier, yet market projections and valuation multiples suggest brutal corrections are inevitable. An 80-90% pullback from current levels wouldn’t be shocking; it would be predictable.

Investors tempted by these stocks should either wait for sanity-based entry points or maintain microscopic positions only. The long-term opportunity may prove real, but the near-term risks vastly outweigh near-term rewards.