#降息预期 After watching the Fed's latest "hawk-dove debate," I have to say that the market's disagreement this time truly reflects real uncertainty. On the surface, the policy statement is dovish, but the attitude of the six members on the dot plot is the key—they are effectively raising the bar for rate cuts, which means the subsequent policy environment could be much tighter than the market is currently pricing in.

I've previously suffered from misinterpreting such signals during past cycles. At that time, I was fooled by the seemingly dovish rhetoric, thinking that the favorable outlook was certain to materialize, only to be slapped in the face when the dot plot was released. Now, with Morgan Stanley and other analysts having differing expectations on a 100 basis point rate cut, it shows that the market is still digesting the true policy intentions.

The key is to be cautious of projects that simply chase the trend and overreact to policy changes. Expectations of rate cut cycles are often the most active periods for "cutting leeks"—big players love to create FOMO during these "favorable but uncertain" moments. If you're still blindly chasing certain coins now, claiming it's because of "rate cut expectations," you should stop and think if you're just being led by the rhythm again.

The most practical advice is: wait until the policy is confirmed before taking action. This stage is actually a good time to review your holdings. Those who can survive the market fluctuations are the ones who are not swayed by short-term expectations.