I recently discovered an interesting phenomenon while tracking consumer data in the US and China. Remember in 2018, China's total retail sales of consumer goods nearly matched the US figures on the same basis, reaching about 95%. My initial judgment was straightforward: with four times the population and a faster economic growth rate, surpassing the US was only a matter of time.

But by 2025, the situation reversed. China's consumer retail sales only account for about 80% of US retail consumption. The reason is also clear: US inflation has pushed up nominal values, while China faces deflationary pressures combined with exchange rate factors. When these two forces collide, the ratio actually regresses.

The more striking data in this area is—according to the IMF's latest forecast, China's GDP in 2025 will be $19.39 trillion, while the US will be $30.6 trillion, with China only accounting for 63.3%. In 2021, it was still at 76%.

The key to this gap lies in the service sector. US Q3 GDP data shows that personal consumption was $21.11 trillion, accounting for 67.9% of GDP, with service consumption at $14.57 trillion and goods consumption only $6.546 trillion. Services far exceed goods spending, and this structure is quite revealing.

In 2024, US service consumption reached $13.63 trillion, and by the third quarter of 2025, it jumped to an annualized $14.57 trillion, with a nominal growth rate of 6.9%. The growth is indeed fierce. In contrast, in China, any slight disturbance causes the middle class to immediately tighten and save money. In 2021, residents' savings increased by 9.9 trillion yuan, jumping to 17.84 trillion yuan in 2022, then to 16.65 trillion yuan in 2023, with significant increases. In 2024, the stock market rebounded, and some savings shifted to investments, adding only 14.26 trillion yuan. In the first 11 months of 2025, savings increased by 12.06 trillion yuan, but the new deposits still remain high. Even high-end alcohol and luxury dining expenses are shrinking.

Why is this happening? The key difference lies in billing culture.

US service consumption is not a matter of active choice but is systemically linked to automatic billing. Just housing-related expenses alone amount to $3.818 trillion, with per capita costs exceeding $10,000. Rent, property taxes, home insurance, property management fees, garbage collection fees, water, electricity, natural gas, internet, TV—all bills arrive like raindrops. Homes are also about 50% larger than in China, naturally increasing expenditure pressure. When inflation hits, landlords, utility companies, and insurers raise prices, and most people can only pay honestly. If they don’t, they risk being evicted.

Add auto loans, gasoline, auto insurance (public transportation is minimal, and without a car, life stalls), health insurance, student loans—all these bills are automatically deducted. About 80% are system-automated withdrawals from accounts. Once signed, companies can steadily siphon money every month; users can't really cut costs.

Chinese logic is entirely different. If people are poor or feel they might become poor, their first reaction is to spend less and save more. China has almost no billing culture—water, electricity, property fees are minimal; rent is negotiable; mortgage payments, though intimidating, decrease when housing prices fall and interest rates drop. Major consumption is a matter of active choice—if you don’t want to spend, you simply don’t.

The result is that US GDP growth relies not on some economic miracle but on the continuous price increases of the billing system. A few mouse clicks can cause nominal GDP to surge, and service sector figures to rise steadily. Over these years, this approach has widened the gap between the US and China. On the surface, US consumption appears high, but in reality, it is passive consumption locked into a forced billing system.