Will Ford Motor Company (F) Stock Rise After Q3 2024 Earnings? What Investors Need to Know

When Ford Motor Company (F) releases its third-quarter 2024 results on October 28, the investment community will be watching closely. The automotive giant is anticipated to deliver stronger year-over-year earnings on the back of increased revenues—a narrative that has become standard Wall Street fare. However, what truly matters for stock movement isn’t the consensus projection itself, but rather whether Ford’s actual performance will outpace or underperform these widely-held expectations.

The Numbers on the Table

Market analysts have calibrated their models around an earnings-per-share (EPS) figure of $0.49 for the upcoming quarter, translating to a robust 25.6% year-over-year expansion. Revenue projections stand at $41.2 billion, edging up just 0.1% from the comparable period last year. While the earnings growth looks impressive, the revenue momentum tells a more cautious story about Ford Motor Company (F)'s underlying business trajectory.

What Recent Analyst Actions Reveal

Over the past month, the consensus EPS estimate for Ford Motor Company (F) has remained flat—neither upgraded nor downgraded. This stability suggests that covering analysts have largely settled on their positions. However, beneath this surface calm lies a more nuanced picture worth examining.

The critical indicator here is the Earnings Surprise Prediction (Earnings ESP), which compares the most recently updated analyst estimates against the formal consensus. For Ford Motor Company (F), the Most Accurate Estimate edges slightly higher than consensus, producing a positive Earnings ESP of +1.22%. This modest upside suggests fresh analyst optimism, but it’s hardly overwhelming. Complicating matters, Ford Motor Company (F) currently sits at a Zacks Rank of #5—the lowest rating tier—which dampens confidence in predicting an earnings beat.

Historical Track Record: A Mixed Picture

Past performance offers important context. In the immediately preceding quarter, Ford Motor Company (F) was expected to deliver $0.64 in EPS but actually posted $0.47—a disappointing 26.56% shortfall. Looking back over four consecutive quarters, the company managed to beat consensus estimates just twice, suggesting a pattern of coming up short more often than exceeding expectations.

This historical underperformance becomes particularly relevant when assessing the probability of a positive surprise this quarter. The combination of a weak Zacks Rank and mixed surprise history makes it difficult to confidently bet on Ford Motor Company (F) delivering an earnings beat in October.

Interpreting What Happens Next

An earnings beat doesn’t automatically translate into positive stock performance. Investors have witnessed plenty of situations where companies exceed expectations yet their stock retreats due to guidance letdowns, industry headwinds, or management commentary that fails to inspire confidence. Conversely, stocks occasionally rise despite missing targets when forward-looking signals appear constructive.

For Ford Motor Company (F), management’s tone and business outlook discussion during the earnings call will likely matter as much as the headline numbers. The sustainability of any stock price movement will hinge on whether the company can articulate a credible growth narrative for the quarters ahead.

How Ford Stacks Up: An Industry Snapshot

Within the automotive sector, Harley-Davidson (HOG) presents an instructive contrast. The motorcycle manufacturer is anticipated to report $0.82 in EPS for Q3 2024, but this represents a troubling 40.6% year-over-year decline. Revenues are forecast at $970.25 million, down 25.7% from the prior year. Recent analyst revisions have moved sharply negative—a 9.5% downward adjustment to the EPS consensus over 30 days. With a Zacks Rank of #5 and negative Earnings ESP of -10.54%, Harley-Davidson appears positioned for continued disappointment, though the company has historically beaten expectations three times over the last four quarters.

By comparison, Ford Motor Company (F)'s earnings trajectory, while not spectacular, looks more resilient than segments of the broader automotive landscape.

The Bottom Line for Investors

Ford Motor Company (F) doesn’t present a compelling setup for an earnings beat scenario. The combination of a poor Zacks Rank, modest positive Earnings ESP, and a history of missing targets creates skepticism about the October 28 announcement. While not a guaranteed miss, the probability calculus doesn’t favor upside surprises.

Smart investors considering Ford Motor Company (F) should weigh earnings potential alongside other factors: competitive positioning, industry tailwinds or headwinds, balance sheet health, and dividend sustainability. The earnings report matters, but it shouldn’t be the sole determinant of investment decisions around this stock.